Ted Strodder Yelp

Get in touch

Ted Strodder


415.377.5222
Golden Gate
Sotheby's International Realty
189 Sir Francis Drake Blvd
Greenbrae CA 94904

2017 in Marin: Where We’ve Been and Where Might We Be Going

It’s 2017 and the watch words seem to range from “yikes” to “look out”. And that’s just talking about Mariah Carey’s next singing performance. Did you see that replay from NYE? Yikes. And she knew what was coming! There is a parallel here with the Marin housing market as many buyers seemed to also know what was coming.


Since we have nothing prerecorded to mess up on the lip synch, all we can do is look to where we’ve been to try and guess where we might be going. We often used the boating analogy here. When trying to navigate a straight line, a good captain will often turn around to look at the line they’ve just made. To see where they’re going, they look back at where they’ve been. I’ve tried this at the wheel of a boat and it works. I thought I was steering a straight course up a channel, only to look back and see I’d drifted a bit. You can use this concept in relationships or, in this case, in real estate.

Looking back, we can see a very steady course for Marin real estate. A low, fixed supply of properties coupled with a high, increasing demand to live here made for a healthy course of slow appreciation. And nothing points for this trend to end, not unless they somehow convert some of our 75% of dedicated public open space to housing, but we all know that isn’t happening anytime this century.

For the year, 2086 homes sold with the median at exactly  $1,200,000, which was $25,000 over the median asking price and 9% above last year, which was 9% over 2015. The average Days on Market (DOM) was up to 49, but the sought after locations sold with more than one offer in closer to 10 days. Smart buyers looked ahead to see no changes in the supply/demand dynamic and usually ponied up more than they wanted to pay: a tough decision to make, but one that was ultimately rewarding as values continued their slow rise. But will that continue?

Well, not to go silent while the soundtrack plays, like Mariah, but I just don’t know. We have an unprecedented new president, economic changes coming and mortgage rates likely on the rise. The first two, who knows, but the latter we can predict. As home loan rates increase, buyers tend to scramble and buy in the near term, further shrinking the supply. But as they continue up, many homeowners will opt to stay where they are, locked in to their cheap loan payment instead of trading up to a bigger home, but at a higher mortgage rate. This usually shrinks the inventory even further.

So what’s a buyer or seller to do? If you have to move, just move. The other situations are too numerous to cover, but if you keep in mind the enjoyment you’ll get out of your new home, you’ll likely forget about the small extra monthly increase. Just remember that very few residents stay in their house for 30 full years, so if you opt for a 5,7 or 10 year fixed rate loan, you’ll join the masses who often go this way. Until then, I’m as curious as you are to see what this year brings to our country (and county) as you might be.

For now, enjoy January, wherever you are. As always, let me know of any questions, thanks for reading and here’s to a great 2017!

TS

Text or call 415.377.5222 or <a href=mailto:ted@gomarin.com>ted@gomarin.com</a>