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Ted Strodder


415.377.5222
Golden Gate
Sotheby's International Realty
189 Sir Francis Drake Blvd
Greenbrae CA 94904

February 2019 in Marin: Winter is Here and the Market Starts Now

Winter is officially here in Marin as a series of powerful storms brought more rain and sierra snow in the first week of the month. Northern California typically sees this late start to our winter, but not so the housing market. Call that an “early” start as the For Sale signs now start to pop up in early February, kicking off a very early home buying season. The market starts now and the undercurrent momentum we’re seeing indicates it could be another good year, albeit with some signs of caution.

After another year of slow and steady appreciation, local homeowners saw the average home price rise 6%. Not hare-quick, but tortoise-healthy, which generally is a good thing. But with sales slowing in the last half of the year nationwide, some are seeing that as a red flag, even suggesting we’re headed back to the challenges of 2008. This isn’t the case, as the statistics prove the current market is nothing like the one that preceded the housing crash last decade.

The previous bubble was primarily caused by unhealthy levels of mortgage debt. New purchasers were putting down the minimum down payment, giving them little reason to buckle down and hold on during the tough times ahead. At the same time, other existing homeowners were using their houses as ATM’s, drawing from their hard earned investment, leaving them with little (if any) equity.

When prices started to fall, many homeowners found themselves in a negative equity situation, with their mortgage(s) higher than the value of their home. When this happened, they often found themselves in negative equity situations, which caused them to walk away. And so a vicious cycle formed and it took years to recover. In fixed supply/high demand areas like Marin, that was a scant three years, but other areas took more than twice that, with prices only recently recovering above where they were in 2008. Today, the equity situation is totally different.

According to a new report from ATTOM Data Solutions, more than 1-in-4 homes with a mortgage have at least 50% equity, even higher in areas like Marin and parts of the Bay Area where many people own their homes free and clear. Call that a comfortable cushion or a healthy sleep-at-night factor, but it’s yet one more reason to buy and hold onto real estate here. If you’re looking to trade up, down or sideways, now may be the time as the new inventory starts to hit MLS and mortgage rates have surprisingly dipped to new lows.

Let me know of any questions, but that’s it for now. Enjoy February, wherever you are. Stay dry and stay safe, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222
ted@gomarin.com