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Ted Strodder


415.377.5222
Golden Gate
Sotheby's International Realty
189 Sir Francis Drake Blvd
Greenbrae CA 94904

January 2019 in Marin: Will The New Year Bring a New Era and a New Market?

The New Year is officially here in Marin, bringing a perennial chill in the air, along with much-needed rain and Sierra snow pack. The decorations are packed up, celebrations are over and the kids are getting back to school as the bustle settles and things return to normal. But how normal will real estate and the housing market be? Will the chill of last year continue? Let’s talk about that.

Given the repeated Fed rate increases, mortgage rates rose from a low of approx 3.3% in December of 2012 to 4.5% today. One point. That’s it. Hardly a reason for the market to slow, but we also saw new SALT and federal tax deduction limits, along with an increase in housing inventory. Naturally, sales slowed all last year, indicating there’s a good chance we may be entering a new era for the housing market everywhere, not just Marin.

My own prediction for 2019? I’ve had a year to watch and think about that. I’ve researched all the data, charts and graphs, along with some hefty feet on the ground canvassing. Using all these resources, combined with my thirty-two years of experience doing this, here’s what I’ve come up with: I honestly have no idea. This is a new era, apparently and 4.5% of a fixed interest rate is 1/3 of the 13% it was when I started. So what gives and where are we going?

Sorry to disappoint you, but my crystal ball broke years ago and until they come up with a new model with free shipping on my Prime account, I’m not investing in another one. The last ball I had gave me no warning of things to come back in the summer of 2007, so I’m hoping the new and improved crystal ball is much more helpful. But none of the big brains on CNBC, or any agents I’ve talked with have any inclination a crash is coming this time around.

At most the R-word may be of a new dynamic, but not drastic or long term. It could start slow and end quick, so they say, perhaps as early as later this year and into 2020. Probably. After that, it’s anybody’s guess but back to where that leaves us with real estate in Marin for 2019 with some short term predictions.

Inventory will swell early this year. It tends to be weather-dependent with many sellers holding off a week or two if a big storm is coming, but new listings should pop aplenty onto MLS this month and into February. Long gone are the days of a June 1st start date to the housing market here. It went from early summer to early spring, now becoming mid winter for the For Sale signs to sprout up from front yards. This will be a welcome sign (literally) for the droves of buyers waiting in the wings, preapproved or with all-cash in hand, ready to pounce and write up a strong offer. Even if a 30% increase in inventory takes place, that’s still a fraction of what it used to be. More people continue to want to live here than don’t and the supply/demand economics will stay in place, inching prices up perhaps, or keeping them flat at the very worst. Nobody I’ve talked to see’s a decrease, but that’s only here in our fixed supply/growing demand Marin market. I can’t say the same for Phoenix or any secondary home market, where my colleagues say it is very slow and slowing further, often dramatically.

Buyers, don’t wait too long and of course, we know you’re not waiting for that perfect house. I’ve yet to hear of anyone buying the perfect home here. It may be either the perfect location, lot or layout (Ted’s 3 L’s) but doubtful all three. Even if that’s the case, the condition likely won’t be perfect. Keep in mind, I don’t specialize in the $100m + properties though). But typically, home buyers get as close as they can, then make them their perfect home. Just be flexible and don’t expect prices to drop down on well-priced listings in “A” locations. Overpriced homes will still be aplenty though and they will definitely have to face reality if in fact the seller wants to sell. Many “are just trying it”, which is fine and often basically free to do. But if a property checks a lot of the boxes on your Wish List, don’t wait. Make an offer and make a move. You’ll never regret it, I promise.

That’s it for now. Enjoy January and 2019 wherever you are. Thanks for reading.

Happy New Year

Ted

415.377.5222
ted@gomarin.com