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Ted Strodder


415.377.5222
Golden Gate
Sotheby's International Realty
189 Sir Francis Drake Blvd
Greenbrae CA 94904

Marin Real Estate Blog

February 2025: Market Starts Early, Inquiries From LA Fire Victims Increase

It’s February in Marin and the home buying season has already started. This is a stark contrast to the last two years, where we saw some of the slowest sales activity in history. Basically, people just stayed put. Not so anymore. The buyers have been out in force, particularly in the higher demand areas. That would be any home located within a walkable distance to schools, shops, parks or even all three. The more flat land, the better. Demand has already far exceeded supply with multiple offers abounding. And that was in early January. The market hasn’t typically “started” until February, so it will be very interesting to see where things go from here.

One new dynamic added to the already swollen pool of home buyers has been a slight influx of buyer inquiries from the fire-hit areas of LA. Early data shows that upwards of 70% of the victims there are likely to cash out and move, rather than endure a potential ten year process of rebuilding in or around their location. We’ll see how that goes, but I for one have lost a family home (twice) to fire while growing up. It can be devastating far beyond the financial, so my heart goes out to those people.

I’ll stay in touch. That’s it for now.

Ted

January Jump: New Year Kicks Off With a Bang

It’s 2025 in Marin. Is it just me, or does that sound so much more futuristic than 2024. Ironically, what the future holds for Marin real estate is very much a topic on more than just a few minds here these days. So many people didn’t buy or sell in the last two years, the pent-up demand to do either has only grown. People have to live somewhere. That means, they often have to move. Maybe they need to stop paying rent and want to control their own home destiny. Maybe they need to trade up, trade down, or trade out of the county altogether for cheaper pastures. What’s interesting about that one, is the number of people who opt for a lesser priced, more affordable area, only to figure out within a few years why it’s so cheap to live there. Some of those decide to move back and you can’t blame them. Marin is pretty tough to beat for quality of living, but it’s easy to beat for home prices. Considering the flat two years we’ve seen here, that’s likely to change soon. It actually seems to be changing already.

Multiple offers abounded last week, at least some of the properties I had been watching. One was an older, 1920’s home in Mill Valley for $1.8 mil that didn’t even have a working HVAC, among other things. That didn’t stop 62 buyers from requesting a disclosure packet and 9 of those stepping up with strong, over asking offers, including all cash. I’m told the winner was one of those, with a one week closing. Is this a one-off? Unlikely. I watched the same thing happen, to a lesser extent in Corte Madera that was listed for $1.6 mil. There were 33 packets out on that one, with 6 offers in. The winner will close on that one shortly, but both of these sales obviously had no contingencies. The take away here is less about the winners and more about those who didn’t win. With these two properties alone, that leaves 13 buyers still out there, ready to buy. And the next time the right house comes around, I promise you, all of them will offer a little bit higher and better. Therein lies Marin home appreciation. Let’s see if this continues throughout the spring, but our market really hasn’t even gotten going yet. We usually start around mid February.

That’s it for now. Thanks for reading. Hope this is a great year for you, wherever you are.

Ted Strodder

Golden Gate Sotheby’s Int’l Realty

text 415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

CalRE: 01057081

The Marin Market: Will it be More of the Same, or a December to Remember?

December is here in Marin. Cooler temperatures are in the air, but not so in the housing market. Nobody knows why, but for some reason, our normally slow November was anything but. New listings and old were snapped up, often with multiple offers, at least on those that had what today’s buyer looks for in terms of price and presentation. “Done” homes continue to outsell fixers of any kind, but even those needing work flew off the shelves. This likely signals what we all suspect–that the market has seen the bottom, over the summer, probably, with steady upside to come. I’m not the only one who feels this way. Plenty has been written about it. Those are just my synergistic comments from the trenches and what many of us suspect or envision. As always though, what happens next is anybody’s guess. We won’t know when the market has hit bottom until we can look back a solid six months.

Going forward, I can tell you there is a lot of optimism. Many buyers are getting ready to buy, with an equal number of sellers appearing ready to sell. Business breeds business, as they say, and once the bulk buying starts again, it should be off to the races. We’ll see.

Meantime, stay safe wherever you are and enjoy this holiday month.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Marin Home Sales Up, Defying Gravity and Other Areas

Wow, hard to believe that November is here already. The months and years seem to fly by these days. Our kids grow up like our gardens, each taking great care and nurturing to be their best, improving with time. The same can be said for where we live, I suppose, although most homes have an interesting dichotomy. They depreciate as they grow older, but appreciate in value thanks to the economics of supply and demand. That’s certainly the case here in Marin. Some say it’s the price of the land that goes up. I think it’s the land plus the improvements on top, no matter how much it may weather the storms of times. Speaking of storms, winter is on the way. What does that mean for the housing market? Who knows, really. But if history is any gauge, we likely see the same winter market that I’ve seen throughout the years.  

Home sales tend to slow here, starting a week before Thanksgiving, continuing on until early February. By the time March 1st hits, we usually are well into our typical early spring selling season, which lasts until July 1st. People like to get moved in and unpacked by mid August, whether they have school age children or not. The data is clear on this, with the bulk of home sales and appreciation occurring in those four plus months. There is generally an uptick again starting in mid September, but the rest of the year usually shows only a few percentage points of value increase. This has been a good year for Marin home values over all, despite what we see going on in other areas of the country. Unless there are any noteworthy major economic events, this is most likely the case going into 2025. But as I said, who knows.  

In the meantime, stay happy and healthy. Keep your attitude up, remain optimistic. Smile when you can, remaining thankful for what you have, not what you don’t. Enjoy November, wherever you are. Stay safe and as always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Marin Market Rocks Into October After Rate Cuts

Marin homebuyers came out in force last month, most likely fueled by two things: the lowest mortgage rates in two years, along with the desire to close escrow and unpack by Thanksgiving or Christmas at the latest. We’ve seen close to 150 properties go into contract recently, in all price ranges and with all types of homes. From mobile homes to mansions, we witnessed good strength and depth throughout the twelve towns of Marin. This could very well be an indication that the softness of the last eighteen months is behind us, but we won’t know for sure until we are 3-6 months passed it.  

Inventory has also seen a solid uptick, with well over 300 homes for buyers to choose from. If you’re a regular reader of this blog, you’ll recall when that number dropped to only 99 at one point, the lowest any of us can recall. For now, the sentiment amongst my colleagues is that we should see a very healthy spring market. If you’re a buyer, you may want to consider stepping in and stepping up sooner rather than later. If you’re a seller, continue working on any fix up projects, allowing any future lucky occupant of your home to be able to move right in. 

In the meantime, stay happy and healthy. Keep your attitude optimistic. My 96 year old Dad sure does. The heart of a lion, that guy, thankful for what he has, not what he doesn’t. Enjoy this gorgeous fall, wherever you are, along with all of 2024. Stay safe and as always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

September Sales Looking to Increase, Despite Recent Industrywide Changes

“Do you remembah, the twenty-first night of Septembah…” Earth, Wind and Fire, right? Not sure why I started with that this month. But maybe it’s not so inappropriate after all. Despite ominous predictions to the contrary, not a lot of wind or fire in the earth bound real estate market here in Marin, not after the new disclosure of transaction fees began. These have always been negotiable and they’ve always been posted right up front, with complete transparency. But now they aren’t published, not publicly, anyway. Why they decided to change the structure of it, who knows. But so far, it seems to be very much business as usual.

We saw half a dozen sales in our office alone the first few days. Most of those involved multiple offers (up to 8 on one particular property), but the takeaway was that every listing provided for what’s been known as the lowest standard gross selling fee for decades: 5% of the sales price, split 4 ways between each office and then with each agent involved. Agents don’t make all that much on any transaction. So very few will risk a sale with anyone who is trying to forge a new road off a very established path. Where it goes from here, we’ll see. But for now, there’s a few extra forms to fill out and sign. Other than that, it’s business as usual with deals being done by the dozens.

Inventory remains typically light. But there’s rarely more than a handful of houses to choose from for most buyers in any given price range. After Labor Day, we should see the usual uptick in new listings, with things possibly slowing down–also as usual–in late November, all the way through January. After that, most predictions point to a healthy spring with lower mortgage rates and brisk sales. But we’ll see. 

For now, stay happy and healthy. Keep your attitude optimistic. Things could always be worse. Be thankful for what you have, not what you don’t. I sure am. I’m still here, after all, into my 39th year of doing a job that I absolutely love. 

Enjoy Septembah, wherever you are, along with all of 2024. Stay safe and as always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

August Market Advances But Are Changes Coming?

August is here. This is typically one of the nicer weather months in Marin, with so much going on outside, there generally hasn’t been a lot of homes trading hands. At least that’s how it used to be. We are very much in a twelve month market here. But that doesn’t mean there’s steady home buying all months of the year. Far from it. 

Yes we still see sales around Thanksgiving, Christmas and even New Year’s Eve. But most of the home buying here happens from March 1st to October 1st. That’s when buyers and sellers are hard at it, doing whatever it is they want to do before getting distracted by the holiday season. But there usually is a slowdown after July 5th, when people tend to go away on summer vacation. They put their home buying or selling on hold and take off, sometimes right before the kids go back to school, which is around mid-August. We haven’t seen that dynamic this year though. Home sales have continued steadily, right through July and seemingly into August. Where it goes from here, who knows, but there’s a lot of talk about pent up buyer demand as they wait on the sidelines, hopefully for lower rates in September. I don’t advise that. I suggest buying now, before any Fed rate cut and a potential swarm of buyers pouring back into the market. We’ll see. 

For now, stay happy and healthy. Keep your attitude optimistic. Things could always be worse. Be thankful for what you have, not what you don’t. I sure am. I’m still here, after all, into my 39th year of doing a job that I absolutely love. 

Enjoy August, wherever you are, along with all of 2024. Stay safe and as always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

June Market Jumps in Marin

Hard to believe it’s June already. John Mellencamp has a line in his song Little Pink Houses, that goes, “Where does the time go. Got a new house in escrow.” Now, we don’t have many little pink houses here in Marin. I’ve seen one here or there over my decades of doing this, with most of them being of more neutral tones. But houses in escrow? Now those we do have. Plenty.

The spring market sprung into action early this year, starting in February instead of the usual late March or April. Despite interests rates in the high 6% range–or perhaps because of a fear they could go higher–people woke up from a year long hibernation of house buying and started doing just that. That momentum has only continued, gathering steam as we roll into full on selling/buying and moving season. We’ll see how it goes, but it’s likely to continue at least through this month. We often slow down beginning July 5th, but who knows anymore.  

For those who watch the stats, inventory has tripled over the last six months, bringing 342 homes for sale as of this writing. There’s another 133 in escrow, making for a balanced “neutral” market overall. If we see 1/3 of the inventory under contract, that’s the sign of a nice healthy market, favoring neither buyer nor seller. You have to be careful though. These are the total number of homes for sale in the county. Some areas and price ranges may have only one or two properties up for sale at any given time, leading to the multiple offer frenzy we are still seeing to this day. That too seems like to continue, at least given the pent up demand I’m seeing. 

In the meantime, stay happy and healthy. Keep your attitude optimistic. Things could always be worse. Be thankful for what you have, not what you don’t. I sure am. I’m still here, after all, into my 39th year of doing a job that I absolutely love. 

Enjoy June, wherever you are, along with all of 2024. Please stay safe and as always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

“Marin Market Springs Into Action”

May is here in Marin with the housing market shining like the noonday sun. Buyers came out of hibernation on April 1st, putting 129 homes into contract while closing another 147 in all price ranges over the last month. This includes those in the higher end, above $5 mil. With 282 homes still for sale, that’s a market still favoring sellers, with 45% of the homes being in escrow. That’s where we’ve been. Where it goes from here, nobody is quite sure. But it would seem that buyers have absorbed the 7.5% interest rates, placing a higher importance on the emotional security of homeownership over the financial strain of the monthly payments. We’ll see how May looks once we hit June.  

In the meantime, stay happy and healthy. Keep your attitude optimistic. Things could always be worse. Be thankful for what you have, not what you don’t. I sure am. I’m still here, after all, into my 38th year of doing a job that I absolutely love. 

Enjoy May, wherever you are, along with all of 2024. Please stay safe and as always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

“Spring Has Sprung: Now What?”

April arrived in typical spring fashion here in Marin. The sun was shining, birds were chirping and flowers had started to bloom. But it wouldn’t last. A small storm brought a few more rain drops, but that too would be brief. Makes you wonder if Mother Nature and her good buddy Mother Housing Market are telling us something. Like, don’t get too comfortable with anything. Forecasts can change. And “change” is what it’s all about right now. 

If you’re one of the three people who read this newsletter each month, you’ll recall my prediction exactly a month ago, on March 1st:

“We’re now up to 160 homes for sale. My guess is that hits 200 in a few weeks…as the weather warms up, so will the market and so will the amount of homes for sale. Good news for anyone wanting to move out, move up, move down or just move on.” 

In a rare glimpse of lucky brilliance, I appear to be right, at least on this one. We have exactly 201 homes for sale, as of today. Besides more listings adding to our inventory, we’ve also seen more sales. It’s too soon to call it a healthy rebound, but given the time of year, that could very well be the case. Marin residents love to buy or sell in late spring, then move in the summer. From what I’m seeing with multiple offers out there on select properties, the buyers certainly seem to be making a return into the buying pool. We’ll see, but as of now, there still aren’t enough properties to go around, at least those that are well priced and in desirable locations. Stay tuned to see where this goes, but I’m one of many agents predicting a very healthy spring market. 

In the meantime, stay happy and healthy. Keep your attitude optimistic. Things could always be worse. Be thankful for what you have, not what you don’t. I sure am. I’m still here, after all, into my 38th year of doing a job that I absolutely love. 

Enjoy April, wherever you are, along with all of 2024. Please stay safe and as always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com