Marin Real Estate Blog

December is here, one of my favorite months in Marin. I just love any holiday, but especially any one that has to do with a lot of food and a lot of family. That’s pretty much any holiday in our house, come to think of it. I don’t know about you, but Thanksgiving has turned into a feast fest of nonstop culinary carb and calorie intake for two full days, maybe even three if Kathryn “accidentally” makes too much for that first big night. Love it. That’s the dining habits in the Strodder household. Now to the real estate market. This is a real estate blog, after all, not that there’s a lot to blog about this month. It’s more of the same, with even less of the same when it comes to available inventory.

The number of single family homes for sale is near an all time low set back in early 2020. Buyers have only 193 to choose from, ranging from a low of $299k on up to $31.5 mil. The average climbed to $3.22 mil along with the median that rose up to $1.975 mil. There’s a bit of artificial non-intelligence in there, however, as many sellers take their homes off the market for the winter, beginning in early November and remaining offline until mid January. Usually, anyway. We’ll see what happens this year, but we’ve already seen fifty sellers pull from the market in the last month, with half a dozen more today alone. Will they return for sale in 2024? That too we’ll have to see. All I can tell any seller is that the buyers are out there, waiting. 

Every agent in my network seems to have a list of ready-to-go buyers. They’re preapproved for loans, with only more buying power over the last six weeks as rates have slowly dropped. Again, we’ll have to see what happens in the near term, but once we get through the next six weeks, it’s a whole new year and possibly a whole new ballgame. I for one can’t wait. January will begin my 38th year in real estate here (I started when I was three) and it still gets me going every single day. I love what I do and can’t wait to see what 2024 will bring. Let me know of any questions or how I can help. 

Until next time, enjoy December wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

November is here in Marin and despite this being a monthly newsletter, there’s not much new to report. It was more of the same in October as many homes continued to sell, while others remained untouched. For the record, there are currently 268 single family homes for sale in the county, with another 55 in escrow. This is mainly to do with price, but also my three L’s of Location, Lot and Layout. The better those three factors look with any property, the better and faster the sale. Just don’t forget the importance of pricing. 

With home values here among some of the highest in the nation, most sellers take their sale price very seriously, and for good reason. Marin home buyers tend to abhor overpricing, passing on anything they don’t feel has an attractive price tag on it. That doesn’t mean a Red Tag Sale price, per se. Just whatever the current market will bear given all the economic factors that day, and perhaps the weather. Smart sellers often opt to go below the cumulative perceived market value, spurring buyers to giddyup and make a compelling offer. Given the low inventory, this is often a wise choice. Given that we may be in this for quite some time, even more so. 

If you read all the real estate media posts like I do, you’ve seen that many people could stay put in their homes for much longer these days. When I first started, back in the Crogmagnon era, the average was 6 years. It then climbed to 8 years in 2021, but today sits closer to 12 years. While this can (and will) fluctuate, it likely will just be by a couple years. We’ll know more in a year, but for now, if you’re a seller, price it to sell, not sit. If you’re a buyer, don’t pass up a good 10-15 year opportunity, even if it seems to be at a price higher than your own data shows. In my experience, your enjoyment of use will quickly surpass any value jitters.  

That’s it for now. Until next time, enjoy November wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

Well, it’s October already. The warm weather that begins here in July continues right through this month, with the forecast in the next couple of weeks no exception. That’s the norm, anyway. Not that there’s anything normal about the real estate market here and in much of the country. It reminds me of that classic scene from the movie Young Frankenstein, where Gene Wilder transfers a brain from “Abby Someone” into his monster, beautifully played by Peter Boyle. That’s pretty much what we’ve seen here in the last year: abnormal as it gets.   

Buyers and sellers both appear to be frozen, despite the warm temperatures. The reasons are many and can be found via any Google search, or in your daily feed, providing you spend as much time on real estate links as I do. Whatever the reason, “pent up” seem to be recurrent watch words. Many, many buyers remain on the sidelines, along with an equal number of sellers. Whenever they all decide to jump off and jump into the market, hopefully it’s in an organized fashion and not all at once. I have no idea what would happen, believe me. This is as strange as it gets, believe me. But in a market where value is placed predominantly on supply and demand, let’s just say it would very interesting to watch.

The good news is, people would finally be able to get on with their plans and their lives, which is what the home sales process is all about. It will depend greatly on the economy, mortgage rates, and often the weather that day. As I’ve said many times since I started this blog, we’ll see. 

That’s it for now. Until next time, enjoy October wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

“September morn, we danced until the night became a brand new day…”. Oh, sorry, was just singing there, trying to do my best Neil Diamond impression, but of course, failing miserably. The birds all just took off from outside my office window even, leaving me with only two things I know on the first day of September: I can’t sing worth a damn and I can’t figure out this Marin housing market we’re in. While I can easily stop singing, and have, thus allowing the flock of jays to return, I can’t stop watching what’s going on with Marin buyers and sellers right now, all of whom appear to be in a type of standoff. 

I’ll avoid the old south of the border term for that, but you know what I mean. It’s an inconclusive stalemate where neither side sees a clear path to victory, so they both retreat. Buyers are reluctant to sign up for a 7.5% mortgage and sellers aren’t motivated to reduce prices, many of which have been reduced already. So they stay where they are or rent it out short term, waiting for bluer skies they expect to see midway through next year, while buyers hope for more attractive interest rates.

That’s the real estate world here now, but only partially, not exclusively by any means. We still see roughly a dozen homes go into contract or become contingent-free and Pending on any given day. Multiple offers still abound, with a recent fixer upper in Tiburon at 1 Playa Verde Way closing at more than $600,000 over the asking price with 15 offers on it. Many of those were owner-users, but most were builder-speculators, indicating a solid belief in the mid 2024 housing market here. Note, that’s here in Marin. This is not the case in most other areas of the country, as you’re clearly reading. Best advice I can give any buyer or seller anywhere in the world right now is to make sure you understand that real estate is a very regional, local market. Don’t wait for a price reduction in an area that you want to buy into, just because you read that prices are crumbling in Austin or Phoenix. They are both high growth areas. Where you live may be zero growth, with an increasing demand for a better quality of life. This is what we continue to see in Marin, especially given the travesty that has become San Francisco. 

That’s it for now. Until next time, enjoy September wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

It’s August already here in Marin, with some of the best weather well underway, both here and in the state. If you have a digital screen of any size, you can see that’s not always the case in other counties or states. What a diverse world we live in, going from blazing hot and dry, to tornadoes and rain elsewhere. And it’s not even the start of hurricane season yet. Reminds me of the diverse conditions going on in the real estate markets nationwide also. 

Those same screens you rely on are important to most of us. They provide real-time information of all kinds, ranging from ever-changing weather, to a fluctuating economy, to a man choosing to dress himself daily in a $14,000 dog costume, a Collie, if by chance you haven’t seen that newsworthy nugget. We also see more news on home prices nationwide, which can vary like the temperatures, without changing rapidly like the weather itself. It’s slow going, folks, with significant changes often taking months or years. But change it has and therein lies the diversity. 

We all see that home prices are crumbling in many large, high-growth areas that have all seen a skyrocket in their housing inventory also. Much of that is new construction, along with people who did a quick, pandemic-driven move in order to WFH, only to be asked to return to the office, only to then say, WTF. The For Sale sign then goes up, adding to several already on the block. That’s the story in Denver, Phoenix, Austin and Boise, where hundreds of homes can be for sale in any given housing development or area. But it’s not the view I see out my window. 

A more different market you couldn’t have designed. The inventory in Marin is as low as it’s ever been, leading to a dramatic decline in sales. If there’s not much to sell, there’s not much to buy. The median price IS down, 7% over the height of last year. But charts show that due to the typical spring spike in prices. We’re flat with August 1st of 2022. Take a look out the window of your home and you’ll see what I mean. There likely may not be one For Sale sign in your own neighborhood, or others nearby. Look out the window of your car as you drive around. Likely the same thing. That’s the view, as I see it. Who knows what this month will look, or next. But most of us see much of the same going forward. 

That’s it for now. Until next time, enjoy August wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

It’s July in Marin, with some of the best weather months in the state about to start. Temperatures have actually stayed moderate, despite the threat of climate change, which is really global warming for most of the world, right? But we rarely saw the 100+ days that were more common years ago, capping out mostly in the mid 90’s for our hottest weeks of the summer. That, along with zero humidity keeps it as temperate as you can get, making it near-perfect for any of the outdoor activities Marin has to offer. The fog is also less prevalent, making it overall a great time of year. But this is a real estate blog, not a subsidiary of the Weather Channel. In a nutshell, it may be that fireworks aren’t the only thing to light up the sky this month. Home sales continue, despite the “mortgage lock-in effect” plaguing the low inventory supply here and in most of the country. 

I read recently that close to 90% of all homeowners in the U.S. have an interest rate of 5% or lower. Nearly half of all homeowners have a rate of 3.5% or even lower. While many of these people want to sell, trading up, down, or leaving the area entirely, they are stuck, “locked-in” and unable to stomach a mortgage of 7% (and climbing, likely). I know plenty of people who want to sell, they just can’t, or won’t, to be more accurate. This leaves today’s buyer often with few choices for homes to buy in any given price range. It helps save a lot on gas or electric charging as there isn’t a lot to drive around and look at. But it doesn’t help the moving companies, possibly explaining why UHaul stock dropped 15% at the end of May. Fewer people are moving. 

Where do we go from here? Who knows. It’s certainly as uncertain as I’ve ever seen it. Buyers continue to buy though. If they need to move, they move. We’ll see if they do that into July as they’ve done in the last few months, often at record prices.  

That’s it for now. Until next time, enjoy July wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

June is here. Finally. The weather has finally warmed up, the kids are finally out of school and Marin home prices have finally–sorry. I have no idea and don’t know what they’ll do. What happens with prices is a complete unknown, even to those of us who’ve been doing it for well over thirty years. Given how it’s gone for April and May, we could very well see more of the same frenetic home sales with anxious buyers snapping up what little inventory we have. But there’s a lot of economic uncertainty out there to come, so again, who knows. All I do know is that our youngest is heading off to college in August without a care in the world. He’s aware of what I do for a living, but that’s about it. No real concern about supply and demand, mortgage rates or debt ceilings. Ah to be young again.   

Now if he were  to ask me about any of those market components, I would be thrilled, of course. But all I could tell him is where we are today, not really where we might be in the near or distant future. Of course I have to believe that people will always place a high importance on a nice safe place to live. So the chances of our home prices continuing up (albeit slowly) is highly likely. But only time will tell.

Meantime, our inventory remains at record lows, as it does in many of the zero (or low) growth areas. Many sellers are choosing to stay put and wait out that same uncertainty I mentioned earlier. Summer is a new sales month though, so again, we’ll see. 

That’s it for now. Until next time, enjoy June wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

Speaking of bananas, that pretty much sums up the real estate market these days. 

January marked the start of my 37th year as a real estate broker here. But I will be the first to tell you that every dawn brings a new day to the market. Many of those days make me feel like I’m new to the business. Sure I’ve picked up a few good negotiating skills, but I have very little insight into what’s going to happen or where things are going. In general, that is. On specific properties, I can still peg who is going to get multiple offers over asking and who isn’t. Many seasoned agents can. But that doesn’t take any kind of genius. Many of you know or feel the same thing. It’s the odd ball outliers that continue to confound me. 

I had a new client email me last week, asking if Marin prices had tumbled like they had in his area back east. “Some, yes, others, no,” is all I could muster. He inquired specifically then on his target areas to search in, along with his desired house size and price range, both of which are on our higher end. I sent him a snapshot of sales over the last month, each one selling well over the asking price. Some of those were $1 mil over, all closed quickly, all cash. 

Slowdown? Falling prices? Not exactly. While these are just a handful of homes and hardly representative of the entire market, it’s more of an illustration as to how unpredictable people can be when it comes to the emotional pull of Marin real estate. Inventory remains at record lows and most buyers are aiming to be here at least ten years, so they seem to be okay with any future price drops, if they even happen. Where we go in the average or median home market remains to be seen. A new mortgage dynamic goes into play today, essentially penalizing borrowers with good credit, aiming to subsidize those with poor credit. Your tax dollars at work, folks.    

That’s it for now. Until next time, enjoy May wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

April is here in Marin and I’m not 100% sure, but I believe that big yellow ball in the sky is the sun. After the wettest winter in recent memory, the clouds parted, the yellow ball came out and so did the buyers. I’ll never forget it. One week ago, I had my first open house in months. I’d kept my expectations in check, which was really my way of saying I had no idea what to expect. I literally said this to Kathryn as I was on my way out the door. Then, at the stroke of 2:00 pm, it was like somebody opened the electronic hold back gates at a horse racing track. People started arriving and they didn’t stop. At the end of the weekend, after my second Open House, I’d had somewhere around 140 people through. I know, right? Wow. Not only that, it continued throughout the week. I heard the same feedback from many of my fellow agents, too. Not that one week makes a market, but it’s not a bad way to kick off the selling season.   

For the data watchers out there, inventory continues to be at record lows all across the board. Thankfully the numbers are changing, albeit slowly. We’re up 25 homes (155 total) from last month, but given this is a busy time for buying and selling, that could stay static more or less for April. Typically we see 20 new listings a day, but another 15-18 go into contract, making it a slow swell of inventory. Still, these next few months are Go Time for buyers and sellers as most people want to close escrow in June or July, latest. School starts in mid August, making it a target for new homeowners to want to be unpacked and in place by that time, hopefully. Let’s see how it goes. 

That’s it for now. Until next time, enjoy April wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

February is here in Marin and it will be a very interesting month, indeed. Reservoirs are filling up to their maximum here, likely ending the drought soon, but the drought of new inventory continues to stifle the housing market. As of today, there are only 117 total homes on the market, down from what we all thought was the absolute low of 127 a month ago. That’s all the single family homes in the entire county, which isn’t much considering we have approx 260,000 people. This would lead one to wonder how 2023 might look and a question I often get, which is, “What is the deal with home prices this year”? My stock answer is a brilliant one, as always, with “I will let you know six months from now”, as my crystal ball broke back in ’88 and has yet to be replaced. But if I had one word to describe the forthcoming months in Marin, it would have to be balanced. 

Look for more homes to come on the market, for starters. Few sellers (or agents) like to go up for sale when it’s dumping with rain, as it has been here. Once the sun comes out starting next month, we’ll see more For Sale signs pop up, but many folks try to be ahead of that and will sell beginning this month and on into our busy spring/summer selling season. But nobody is predicting a frenetic buying frenzy like in 2021, at least not for every home. Prices are forecast to go up 7% for the year, which sounds right, but we’ll see. 

Once those homes do hit the market, watch for the same mantra to continue for those that DO sell. Right property, right condition, right preparation, right price…SOLD, with more than one offer, even. If they were able to be sold last year with mortgage rates around 7%, they will sell this year with them around 6%. Not that anybody gets a 30 year fixed these days. Most opt for a 5, 7 or 10 year fixed, aiming to refinance down the road. But buying should be steady, but we’ll see. Read this blog in July and see how right I was, or wasn’t. 

That’s it for now. Until next time, enjoy February and all of 2023 wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder