December in Marin: Seasonal Holiday Slowdown for Buyers and Sellers

Winter is officially here in Marin as a series of recent storms brought much-needed rain to our parched county. We’ve got a long way to go to get us out of the last three semi-dry years, but we’re off to a good start. Water has been pouring into the reservoirs and snow has been falling in Tahoe, much as the photo below depicts. No gully washers yet, but as with the choice of homes for sale out there, it isn’t much. As many a buyer says, though, “We’ll take it.”

It’s doubtful Santa will bring any new inventory this month, assuming history is any guide. Normally, Marin residents focus on the holiday season rather than treating this as a month to trade up, down or sideways. Every year we see a couple dozen sellers pull their homes off MLS for a short (or long) breather. Why have buyers tramping their wet feet through your decorated home when you can wait for the sunny skies of spring, they say. So our already-low inventory of homes for sale drops 5-10% the first week of December, with this month being no exception.Buyers too tend to retreat, focusing on holiday parties, family gatherings, snow sports or just their own brief respite from home searching. Everybody needs a break now and then, no matter what the cause or task, and it’s certainly understandable with home buying. Given the predominance of multiple offers out there, many of these buyers have tried and come up short with their attempts at a home purchase here. To them, I can say, “Good for you for trying, but whatever you do, don’t give up”.By every account on everybody’s screen, there is no sign of the Marin market repeating another unscheduled downturn as in the freak year of 2007. There’s only every sign of another continued slow uptick of appreciation. Look for another average of 9% in 2015, but like this year, more than that in the lower range and less in prices above $3 mil. Basically, a turtle’s repeat of 2014.For the stat-minded of you, the supply of Active homes, condo’s ranches and arks dropped to 372 on Dec 1st. Some towns have only a handful of properties for sale, like Fairfax, where there are just four houses on the market in all price ranges. As has been true to form, the number of homes In Escrow (under contract) hovers around 40%, making it another seller’s market, pretty much as will remain the case next year also.

Buyers who bought this year? Congratulations and well done. You probably figured you were overpaying, but as time has passed, you’ve seen that worry abate. Buyers who didn’t buy? Keep at it, after the holidays, of course. The smart one’s will compromise and be flexible, able to celebrate their purchase in time and read this blog twelve months from now to feel what today’s new homeowner is experiencing.

Rents should also continue up, so if you’re a landlord, good news. If you’re a tenant, rates are so low, it’s almost free money after your deductions, so best not to wait too long or for that ever-elusive perfect property. If it makes you feel any better, in my 28 years of doing this, I have never, ever had a buyer buy the perfect home. They got close, but there’s no such thing as a 10 out of 10 here, no matter what you hear or read online. Except for this well-written blog, that is. Believe all of it! Haha.

Okay, enjoy December wherever you are. Text or email me if you have any questions. Until next year, be safe and be warm.

Ted
415.377.5222 cell
ted@allmarin.com