Ready, Set, Grow: February Home Sale Market in Marin Starts Now

February is here in Marin, though apparently nobody told that to the rain Goddesses. It’s been, literally, forty days and forty nights since any precipitation fell in the county. This after the deluge throughout December filled the local reservoirs to capacity. A recent article in the IJ tells the story, but after seven straight inordinate winter seasons, it appears climate change is here.

Me working the phone during a Squaw Valley storm, 2006. Note the old flip phone which dates the pic.

I was telling some younger residents about the amount of rain that used to fall here, how we’d go up to Tahoe and there’d be ten foot snowdrifts alongside the road. Last few years, there’s rarely an inch on the ground at lake level and the only resorts staying alive are those that invested heavily in snow making, like Heavenly with its 100 snow guns are on the mountain.

But rain isn’t the only thing we’re missing and certainly not the only thing that’s changed in the county those same last seven years: housing inventory, or specifically the lack thereof also. Beginning in 2008, the number of properties for sale in Marin dropped, contrary to the rest of the country where inventory soared with short sales, foreclosures and other distressed sellers, not to mention regular (or organic) sale in general. Not so in Marin. Contrary to what some of us alleged “experts” were expecting, we saw most residents here buckle down and hang onto their homes, even if they were (or went) underwater in value. Sure the vacation condo, boat or third car went up for sale, but rarely did we see an investor or homeowner give up and throw a For Sale sign up. I know I advised everyone who asked me NOT to sell, as I knew the market would recover at some point. The desire to live here is just too high and it’s not like they discovered an old nuclear waste dump under the Civic Center or anything. The fundamentals of a good quality of life were still in place then, as they are today. Fortunately, most people hung in there and the rebound over the last four years has helped them with their pain from those earlier times.

Will anything change this year? Not likely. If you read this blog or any Bay Area newspaper (there are four) they all point to this year being a repeat of last, which was a repeat of the previous year if synergy means anything on your end. I’m in agreement with this, given what I see on my screen, which isn’t much.

Often, your local agent (hopefully a busy one) will be a harbinger of things to happen in your area. We hear or better yet “see” a lot of online chatter with a variety of inquiries or announcement regarding the housing market. This includes, new listings, new price reductions, homes being sold off market and even the occasional rental. Let me just say that since January of 2011, all of these email alerts have been in short supply, much like the housing inventory itself, rentals included. In a simple supply / demand economy, this is an easy one to see why values of the homes have gone up, both in resale and rental prices. And it’s going to continue this year also, at least given what I’m seeing from my perspective. The media doesn’t always get it right, but they get it this time.

What to do from here? Well if you’re a buyer, I’d say it’s okay to buy, even though you’re likely going to pay more than you think the property is worth and, possibly, even more than you can comfortably afford. Nobody wants you eating Top Ramen for dinner every night after your home purchase. But just know that 99% of the buyers out there have experienced the same thing and they will all tell you this: it generally gets easier over time, often after just six months. Given the long term approach to owning a home, this is a very short time frame for a little financial discomfort. And besides, Top Ramen is usually two for a buck and actually isn’t that bad if you get the low sodium version. My ten year old son loves them.

Sellers? Well, don’t get greedy and you should be rewarded. It’s an open-market economy where the buyers will tell you (and your agent) what your home is worth. Stay off of Zillow (or Zilcho, as we call it), don’t listen to your neighbor or your sister in New Jersey. Listen to your agent and price your home effectively. Don’t start high and expect someone to “just bring you an offer”. They won’t. We don’t know why, but here more than anywhere else I know of, buyers are reluctant to write an offer that isn’t roughly within 98% of your asking price. Avoid the overpricing trap that leads to a lot of Days on Market, or the dreaded excessive DOM. Buyers will want to know what’s wrong with your house if it’s sitting there longer than (again, roughly) 45 days, but I hear that question on homes on the market for just 21 days. Things move fast in this online world and you don’t want to play catch up or chase the market by dropping your asking price. This may be a tough concept to grasp, but not for your agent, I promise. Less is more, trust me.

So enjoy February and all of 2015, wherever you are. As always, I’m here to help with any questions you may have. Feel free to text, email or just call me up the old fashion way. I’m always around.

Ted

415.377.5222 c
ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder