November in Marin: Home Sales and Temps Both Heat Up, Finally

November is here in Marin, with unusually warm temperatures for this late in the fall. I’m talking about the housing market of course, but thankfully the air temperature is up also. Both finally came around after it was looking for awhile there like “the fall that never was”.

Seasonally, both tend to heat up just after Labor Day, the unofficial start of our warm Indian Summers and the fall buying season. Neither showed up in September, as you may have read in last month’s newsletter, aptly entitled “Cooler Temps For Marin Homes and Homeowners”. Not so in October. We saw extended weeks of warm weather and the buyers stepped back in to buy. I can’t explain the temperature variant, but we know many buyers took advantage of reduced prices, many of which had come down more than once. That resulted in a healthy 4.5% median home price increase over last year, which is the lowest of all the nine Bay Area counties. This is good news as slow and steady usually means healthy and positive for any financial market.

But they also likely are getting in ahead of the upcoming Fed rate hike in mid December, figuring out that the cost of waiting can add up to hundreds of dollars monthly (depending on the size of the loan) or thousands annually. There are graphics available on that readily available online, many called “The Cost of Waiting”.

But there’s another reason people tend to buy in the fall, even if it’s late into October. Call it Unpacking in Time For the Holidays. Think about it: if you make an offer in October, you’re not closing until November. If you’re early enough into the process, you can enjoy Thanksgiving in your new home. But at the very least, you’ll be well set up by whichever December holiday you celebrate: Hanukkah, Christmas, or even New Year’s Eve. Financials are important, but real estate is still a people business, primarily and most importantly. Normally, buyers like to move in and sellers like to move out weeks before the start of any upcoming major holiday, with July 4th being the exception. That’s a big moving month here in the county as people get unpacked and ready for school to start in mid August. (Yes, today’s kids get ripped off with their short summer in my opinion, but I digress).

Sales volume was down (again) at 7% fewer homes trading last month than in 2017, but this is also a trend we’ve seen as fewer buyers qualify (or want to buy) in the higher price ranges, skewing the busy activity in the lower ranges. We’ve yet to see the $2mil-$5mil market take off with many well-priced homes just sitting in that strata.

Where we go from here is anybody’s guess, though if this nice weather continues (it’s 80 degrees today as I write this), watch for more sales at or close to asking. Whatever happens, November will be a telling month for Marin real estate.

That’s it for now. Enjoy this month wherever you are, and thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222
ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder