Marin Real Estate Blog

August is here. This is typically one of the nicer weather months in Marin, with so much going on outside, there generally hasn’t been a lot of homes trading hands. At least that’s how it used to be. We are very much in a twelve month market here. But that doesn’t mean there’s steady home buying all months of the year. Far from it. 

Yes we still see sales around Thanksgiving, Christmas and even New Year’s Eve. But most of the home buying here happens from March 1st to October 1st. That’s when buyers and sellers are hard at it, doing whatever it is they want to do before getting distracted by the holiday season. But there usually is a slowdown after July 5th, when people tend to go away on summer vacation. They put their home buying or selling on hold and take off, sometimes right before the kids go back to school, which is around mid-August. We haven’t seen that dynamic this year though. Home sales have continued steadily, right through July and seemingly into August. Where it goes from here, who knows, but there’s a lot of talk about pent up buyer demand as they wait on the sidelines, hopefully for lower rates in September. I don’t advise that. I suggest buying now, before any Fed rate cut and a potential swarm of buyers pouring back into the market. We’ll see. 

For now, stay happy and healthy. Keep your attitude optimistic. Things could always be worse. Be thankful for what you have, not what you don’t. I sure am. I’m still here, after all, into my 39th year of doing a job that I absolutely love. 

Enjoy August, wherever you are, along with all of 2024. Stay safe and as always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

Hard to believe it’s June already. John Mellencamp has a line in his song Little Pink Houses, that goes, “Where does the time go. Got a new house in escrow.” Now, we don’t have many little pink houses here in Marin. I’ve seen one here or there over my decades of doing this, with most of them being of more neutral tones. But houses in escrow? Now those we do have. Plenty.

The spring market sprung into action early this year, starting in February instead of the usual late March or April. Despite interests rates in the high 6% range–or perhaps because of a fear they could go higher–people woke up from a year long hibernation of house buying and started doing just that. That momentum has only continued, gathering steam as we roll into full on selling/buying and moving season. We’ll see how it goes, but it’s likely to continue at least through this month. We often slow down beginning July 5th, but who knows anymore.  

For those who watch the stats, inventory has tripled over the last six months, bringing 342 homes for sale as of this writing. There’s another 133 in escrow, making for a balanced “neutral” market overall. If we see 1/3 of the inventory under contract, that’s the sign of a nice healthy market, favoring neither buyer nor seller. You have to be careful though. These are the total number of homes for sale in the county. Some areas and price ranges may have only one or two properties up for sale at any given time, leading to the multiple offer frenzy we are still seeing to this day. That too seems like to continue, at least given the pent up demand I’m seeing. 

In the meantime, stay happy and healthy. Keep your attitude optimistic. Things could always be worse. Be thankful for what you have, not what you don’t. I sure am. I’m still here, after all, into my 39th year of doing a job that I absolutely love. 

Enjoy June, wherever you are, along with all of 2024. Please stay safe and as always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

May is here in Marin with the housing market shining like the noonday sun. Buyers came out of hibernation on April 1st, putting 129 homes into contract while closing another 147 in all price ranges over the last month. This includes those in the higher end, above $5 mil. With 282 homes still for sale, that’s a market still favoring sellers, with 45% of the homes being in escrow. That’s where we’ve been. Where it goes from here, nobody is quite sure. But it would seem that buyers have absorbed the 7.5% interest rates, placing a higher importance on the emotional security of homeownership over the financial strain of the monthly payments. We’ll see how May looks once we hit June.  

In the meantime, stay happy and healthy. Keep your attitude optimistic. Things could always be worse. Be thankful for what you have, not what you don’t. I sure am. I’m still here, after all, into my 38th year of doing a job that I absolutely love. 

Enjoy May, wherever you are, along with all of 2024. Please stay safe and as always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

April arrived in typical spring fashion here in Marin. The sun was shining, birds were chirping and flowers had started to bloom. But it wouldn’t last. A small storm brought a few more rain drops, but that too would be brief. Makes you wonder if Mother Nature and her good buddy Mother Housing Market are telling us something. Like, don’t get too comfortable with anything. Forecasts can change. And “change” is what it’s all about right now. 

If you’re one of the three people who read this newsletter each month, you’ll recall my prediction exactly a month ago, on March 1st:

“We’re now up to 160 homes for sale. My guess is that hits 200 in a few weeks…as the weather warms up, so will the market and so will the amount of homes for sale. Good news for anyone wanting to move out, move up, move down or just move on.” 

In a rare glimpse of lucky brilliance, I appear to be right, at least on this one. We have exactly 201 homes for sale, as of today. Besides more listings adding to our inventory, we’ve also seen more sales. It’s too soon to call it a healthy rebound, but given the time of year, that could very well be the case. Marin residents love to buy or sell in late spring, then move in the summer. From what I’m seeing with multiple offers out there on select properties, the buyers certainly seem to be making a return into the buying pool. We’ll see, but as of now, there still aren’t enough properties to go around, at least those that are well priced and in desirable locations. Stay tuned to see where this goes, but I’m one of many agents predicting a very healthy spring market. 

In the meantime, stay happy and healthy. Keep your attitude optimistic. Things could always be worse. Be thankful for what you have, not what you don’t. I sure am. I’m still here, after all, into my 38th year of doing a job that I absolutely love. 

Enjoy April, wherever you are, along with all of 2024. Please stay safe and as always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

March is here in Marin and while it’s cold and rainy outside, the housing market seems to be heating up. Good timing, too. As you may know from reading this blog or any local news feed, last year was one of the slowest on record for home sales. Not just here, but throughout most of the Bay Area, and California, for that matter. I don’t track sales anywhere other than in Marin, but with so little for sale there simply wasn’t a lot of moving going on. 

I tend to be a 50% data guy and 50% comfortable shoes on the ground guy. Neither metric paints a picture in and by itself. We need to look at both, combined. That said, the data alone in at the end of January had the least amount of single family homes for sale any of us had ever seen. I also had the fewest amount of sales/moving inquiries I think I’ve ever had. The available inventory dropped steadily over the course of a year, all the way down to–are you read–only 95 homes for sale in the entire county. That’s one reason the sales volume dropped by nearly half for all the real estate companies here. With no homes for sale, there were none to buy. Nobody moved. But there’s always good news to be found somewhere, and the good news here is, that looks like it’s changing, and quickly.

In just a month, we’re now up to 160 homes for sale. My guess is that hits 200 in a few weeks. It’s still way low for what is typical here, but it’s a good start. Obviously, there are more homes which are in escrow (70 as of today) but those likely will close soon. Very few deals fall apart here, thanks to diligent sellers and agents who TCB up front, providing comprehensive Disclosure Packets prior to any offers being written. We’ve been doing this practice for close to fifteen years now and it’s the only way to go, for everyone. But as the weather warms up, so will the market and so will the amount of homes for sale. Good news for anyone wanting to move out, move up, move down or just move on. 

In the meantime, stay happy and healthy. Keep your attitude optimistic. Things could always be worse. Be thankful for what you have, not what you don’t. I sure am. I’m still here, after all, into my 38th year of doing a job that I absolutely love. 

Until next time, enjoy March wherever you are, along with all of 2024. Please stay safe and as always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

January is here in Marin, but before we get to that and what it may bring to the real estate market, I have to ask. Can you believe it’s 2024? It sounds so, so futuristic. Much of what we envisioned of what the future would look like is already here, some of it has been for quite some time. We’ve carried computers in our pockets or on our wrists for years. Self driving cars are here, though not in full swing yet, and I’ve yet to see only a few prototypes of cars that fly, let alone a working, affordable hoverboard. The one thing we haven’t seen is any changes in what our homes may look like in the future. Some have gotten smaller, tiny even. Others have gotten more monstrous. But we basically live within a rectangle of four walls with a roof overhead. That’s it. The stacked, glass towers exist in some cities, just not in my rural county. People still want a little yard, a little view, a little privacy and a lot of quality of life. That’s Marin for you and there’s no indication (yet) that people will stop wanting this. Hard to blame them. It’s a great place, as any homeowner knows. But what about those who want to live here? What’s a buyer to do with so little for sale and so much competition. Fear not, I for one think we’re in for a healthy, more balanced market in the months to come. I just don’t know how many months that may be. The forces that drive that are well out of my control. All I can tell you is, things change, even if it’s just a little. Change is good and I think we’re going to see a bit of that this year.

That means more inventory for all you patient buyers out there. No matter where you want to own a home, you should have more choices come early spring. There are a lot of sellers out there, waiting on the sidelines also, ready to make a change of some kind. Interest rates should benefit both parties. Lower is better when it comes to real estate. Let’s hope the economy provides for that.  

Until next time, enjoy January wherever you are, along with all of 2024. Please stay safe and as always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

December is here, one of my favorite months in Marin. I just love any holiday, but especially any one that has to do with a lot of food and a lot of family. That’s pretty much any holiday in our house, come to think of it. I don’t know about you, but Thanksgiving has turned into a feast fest of nonstop culinary carb and calorie intake for two full days, maybe even three if Kathryn “accidentally” makes too much for that first big night. Love it. That’s the dining habits in the Strodder household. Now to the real estate market. This is a real estate blog, after all, not that there’s a lot to blog about this month. It’s more of the same, with even less of the same when it comes to available inventory.

The number of single family homes for sale is near an all time low set back in early 2020. Buyers have only 193 to choose from, ranging from a low of $299k on up to $31.5 mil. The average climbed to $3.22 mil along with the median that rose up to $1.975 mil. There’s a bit of artificial non-intelligence in there, however, as many sellers take their homes off the market for the winter, beginning in early November and remaining offline until mid January. Usually, anyway. We’ll see what happens this year, but we’ve already seen fifty sellers pull from the market in the last month, with half a dozen more today alone. Will they return for sale in 2024? That too we’ll have to see. All I can tell any seller is that the buyers are out there, waiting. 

Every agent in my network seems to have a list of ready-to-go buyers. They’re preapproved for loans, with only more buying power over the last six weeks as rates have slowly dropped. Again, we’ll have to see what happens in the near term, but once we get through the next six weeks, it’s a whole new year and possibly a whole new ballgame. I for one can’t wait. January will begin my 38th year in real estate here (I started when I was three) and it still gets me going every single day. I love what I do and can’t wait to see what 2024 will bring. Let me know of any questions or how I can help. 

Until next time, enjoy December wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

November is here in Marin and despite this being a monthly newsletter, there’s not much new to report. It was more of the same in October as many homes continued to sell, while others remained untouched. For the record, there are currently 268 single family homes for sale in the county, with another 55 in escrow. This is mainly to do with price, but also my three L’s of Location, Lot and Layout. The better those three factors look with any property, the better and faster the sale. Just don’t forget the importance of pricing. 

With home values here among some of the highest in the nation, most sellers take their sale price very seriously, and for good reason. Marin home buyers tend to abhor overpricing, passing on anything they don’t feel has an attractive price tag on it. That doesn’t mean a Red Tag Sale price, per se. Just whatever the current market will bear given all the economic factors that day, and perhaps the weather. Smart sellers often opt to go below the cumulative perceived market value, spurring buyers to giddyup and make a compelling offer. Given the low inventory, this is often a wise choice. Given that we may be in this for quite some time, even more so. 

If you read all the real estate media posts like I do, you’ve seen that many people could stay put in their homes for much longer these days. When I first started, back in the Crogmagnon era, the average was 6 years. It then climbed to 8 years in 2021, but today sits closer to 12 years. While this can (and will) fluctuate, it likely will just be by a couple years. We’ll know more in a year, but for now, if you’re a seller, price it to sell, not sit. If you’re a buyer, don’t pass up a good 10-15 year opportunity, even if it seems to be at a price higher than your own data shows. In my experience, your enjoyment of use will quickly surpass any value jitters.  

That’s it for now. Until next time, enjoy November wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

Well, it’s October already. The warm weather that begins here in July continues right through this month, with the forecast in the next couple of weeks no exception. That’s the norm, anyway. Not that there’s anything normal about the real estate market here and in much of the country. It reminds me of that classic scene from the movie Young Frankenstein, where Gene Wilder transfers a brain from “Abby Someone” into his monster, beautifully played by Peter Boyle. That’s pretty much what we’ve seen here in the last year: abnormal as it gets.   

Buyers and sellers both appear to be frozen, despite the warm temperatures. The reasons are many and can be found via any Google search, or in your daily feed, providing you spend as much time on real estate links as I do. Whatever the reason, “pent up” seem to be recurrent watch words. Many, many buyers remain on the sidelines, along with an equal number of sellers. Whenever they all decide to jump off and jump into the market, hopefully it’s in an organized fashion and not all at once. I have no idea what would happen, believe me. This is as strange as it gets, believe me. But in a market where value is placed predominantly on supply and demand, let’s just say it would very interesting to watch.

The good news is, people would finally be able to get on with their plans and their lives, which is what the home sales process is all about. It will depend greatly on the economy, mortgage rates, and often the weather that day. As I’ve said many times since I started this blog, we’ll see. 

That’s it for now. Until next time, enjoy October wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

“September morn, we danced until the night became a brand new day…”. Oh, sorry, was just singing there, trying to do my best Neil Diamond impression, but of course, failing miserably. The birds all just took off from outside my office window even, leaving me with only two things I know on the first day of September: I can’t sing worth a damn and I can’t figure out this Marin housing market we’re in. While I can easily stop singing, and have, thus allowing the flock of jays to return, I can’t stop watching what’s going on with Marin buyers and sellers right now, all of whom appear to be in a type of standoff. 

I’ll avoid the old south of the border term for that, but you know what I mean. It’s an inconclusive stalemate where neither side sees a clear path to victory, so they both retreat. Buyers are reluctant to sign up for a 7.5% mortgage and sellers aren’t motivated to reduce prices, many of which have been reduced already. So they stay where they are or rent it out short term, waiting for bluer skies they expect to see midway through next year, while buyers hope for more attractive interest rates.

That’s the real estate world here now, but only partially, not exclusively by any means. We still see roughly a dozen homes go into contract or become contingent-free and Pending on any given day. Multiple offers still abound, with a recent fixer upper in Tiburon at 1 Playa Verde Way closing at more than $600,000 over the asking price with 15 offers on it. Many of those were owner-users, but most were builder-speculators, indicating a solid belief in the mid 2024 housing market here. Note, that’s here in Marin. This is not the case in most other areas of the country, as you’re clearly reading. Best advice I can give any buyer or seller anywhere in the world right now is to make sure you understand that real estate is a very regional, local market. Don’t wait for a price reduction in an area that you want to buy into, just because you read that prices are crumbling in Austin or Phoenix. They are both high growth areas. Where you live may be zero growth, with an increasing demand for a better quality of life. This is what we continue to see in Marin, especially given the travesty that has become San Francisco. 

That’s it for now. Until next time, enjoy September wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder