Marin Real Estate Blog

It’s August already here in Marin, with some of the best weather well underway, both here and in the state. If you have a digital screen of any size, you can see that’s not always the case in other counties or states. What a diverse world we live in, going from blazing hot and dry, to tornadoes and rain elsewhere. And it’s not even the start of hurricane season yet. Reminds me of the diverse conditions going on in the real estate markets nationwide also. 

Those same screens you rely on are important to most of us. They provide real-time information of all kinds, ranging from ever-changing weather, to a fluctuating economy, to a man choosing to dress himself daily in a $14,000 dog costume, a Collie, if by chance you haven’t seen that newsworthy nugget. We also see more news on home prices nationwide, which can vary like the temperatures, without changing rapidly like the weather itself. It’s slow going, folks, with significant changes often taking months or years. But change it has and therein lies the diversity. 

We all see that home prices are crumbling in many large, high-growth areas that have all seen a skyrocket in their housing inventory also. Much of that is new construction, along with people who did a quick, pandemic-driven move in order to WFH, only to be asked to return to the office, only to then say, WTF. The For Sale sign then goes up, adding to several already on the block. That’s the story in Denver, Phoenix, Austin and Boise, where hundreds of homes can be for sale in any given housing development or area. But it’s not the view I see out my window. 

A more different market you couldn’t have designed. The inventory in Marin is as low as it’s ever been, leading to a dramatic decline in sales. If there’s not much to sell, there’s not much to buy. The median price IS down, 7% over the height of last year. But charts show that due to the typical spring spike in prices. We’re flat with August 1st of 2022. Take a look out the window of your home and you’ll see what I mean. There likely may not be one For Sale sign in your own neighborhood, or others nearby. Look out the window of your car as you drive around. Likely the same thing. That’s the view, as I see it. Who knows what this month will look, or next. But most of us see much of the same going forward. 

That’s it for now. Until next time, enjoy August wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

It’s July in Marin, with some of the best weather months in the state about to start. Temperatures have actually stayed moderate, despite the threat of climate change, which is really global warming for most of the world, right? But we rarely saw the 100+ days that were more common years ago, capping out mostly in the mid 90’s for our hottest weeks of the summer. That, along with zero humidity keeps it as temperate as you can get, making it near-perfect for any of the outdoor activities Marin has to offer. The fog is also less prevalent, making it overall a great time of year. But this is a real estate blog, not a subsidiary of the Weather Channel. In a nutshell, it may be that fireworks aren’t the only thing to light up the sky this month. Home sales continue, despite the “mortgage lock-in effect” plaguing the low inventory supply here and in most of the country. 

I read recently that close to 90% of all homeowners in the U.S. have an interest rate of 5% or lower. Nearly half of all homeowners have a rate of 3.5% or even lower. While many of these people want to sell, trading up, down, or leaving the area entirely, they are stuck, “locked-in” and unable to stomach a mortgage of 7% (and climbing, likely). I know plenty of people who want to sell, they just can’t, or won’t, to be more accurate. This leaves today’s buyer often with few choices for homes to buy in any given price range. It helps save a lot on gas or electric charging as there isn’t a lot to drive around and look at. But it doesn’t help the moving companies, possibly explaining why UHaul stock dropped 15% at the end of May. Fewer people are moving. 

Where do we go from here? Who knows. It’s certainly as uncertain as I’ve ever seen it. Buyers continue to buy though. If they need to move, they move. We’ll see if they do that into July as they’ve done in the last few months, often at record prices.  

That’s it for now. Until next time, enjoy July wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

June is here. Finally. The weather has finally warmed up, the kids are finally out of school and Marin home prices have finally–sorry. I have no idea and don’t know what they’ll do. What happens with prices is a complete unknown, even to those of us who’ve been doing it for well over thirty years. Given how it’s gone for April and May, we could very well see more of the same frenetic home sales with anxious buyers snapping up what little inventory we have. But there’s a lot of economic uncertainty out there to come, so again, who knows. All I do know is that our youngest is heading off to college in August without a care in the world. He’s aware of what I do for a living, but that’s about it. No real concern about supply and demand, mortgage rates or debt ceilings. Ah to be young again.   

Now if he were  to ask me about any of those market components, I would be thrilled, of course. But all I could tell him is where we are today, not really where we might be in the near or distant future. Of course I have to believe that people will always place a high importance on a nice safe place to live. So the chances of our home prices continuing up (albeit slowly) is highly likely. But only time will tell.

Meantime, our inventory remains at record lows, as it does in many of the zero (or low) growth areas. Many sellers are choosing to stay put and wait out that same uncertainty I mentioned earlier. Summer is a new sales month though, so again, we’ll see. 

That’s it for now. Until next time, enjoy June wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

Speaking of bananas, that pretty much sums up the real estate market these days. 

January marked the start of my 37th year as a real estate broker here. But I will be the first to tell you that every dawn brings a new day to the market. Many of those days make me feel like I’m new to the business. Sure I’ve picked up a few good negotiating skills, but I have very little insight into what’s going to happen or where things are going. In general, that is. On specific properties, I can still peg who is going to get multiple offers over asking and who isn’t. Many seasoned agents can. But that doesn’t take any kind of genius. Many of you know or feel the same thing. It’s the odd ball outliers that continue to confound me. 

I had a new client email me last week, asking if Marin prices had tumbled like they had in his area back east. “Some, yes, others, no,” is all I could muster. He inquired specifically then on his target areas to search in, along with his desired house size and price range, both of which are on our higher end. I sent him a snapshot of sales over the last month, each one selling well over the asking price. Some of those were $1 mil over, all closed quickly, all cash. 

Slowdown? Falling prices? Not exactly. While these are just a handful of homes and hardly representative of the entire market, it’s more of an illustration as to how unpredictable people can be when it comes to the emotional pull of Marin real estate. Inventory remains at record lows and most buyers are aiming to be here at least ten years, so they seem to be okay with any future price drops, if they even happen. Where we go in the average or median home market remains to be seen. A new mortgage dynamic goes into play today, essentially penalizing borrowers with good credit, aiming to subsidize those with poor credit. Your tax dollars at work, folks.    

That’s it for now. Until next time, enjoy May wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

April is here in Marin and I’m not 100% sure, but I believe that big yellow ball in the sky is the sun. After the wettest winter in recent memory, the clouds parted, the yellow ball came out and so did the buyers. I’ll never forget it. One week ago, I had my first open house in months. I’d kept my expectations in check, which was really my way of saying I had no idea what to expect. I literally said this to Kathryn as I was on my way out the door. Then, at the stroke of 2:00 pm, it was like somebody opened the electronic hold back gates at a horse racing track. People started arriving and they didn’t stop. At the end of the weekend, after my second Open House, I’d had somewhere around 140 people through. I know, right? Wow. Not only that, it continued throughout the week. I heard the same feedback from many of my fellow agents, too. Not that one week makes a market, but it’s not a bad way to kick off the selling season.   

For the data watchers out there, inventory continues to be at record lows all across the board. Thankfully the numbers are changing, albeit slowly. We’re up 25 homes (155 total) from last month, but given this is a busy time for buying and selling, that could stay static more or less for April. Typically we see 20 new listings a day, but another 15-18 go into contract, making it a slow swell of inventory. Still, these next few months are Go Time for buyers and sellers as most people want to close escrow in June or July, latest. School starts in mid August, making it a target for new homeowners to want to be unpacked and in place by that time, hopefully. Let’s see how it goes. 

That’s it for now. Until next time, enjoy April wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

February is here in Marin and it will be a very interesting month, indeed. Reservoirs are filling up to their maximum here, likely ending the drought soon, but the drought of new inventory continues to stifle the housing market. As of today, there are only 117 total homes on the market, down from what we all thought was the absolute low of 127 a month ago. That’s all the single family homes in the entire county, which isn’t much considering we have approx 260,000 people. This would lead one to wonder how 2023 might look and a question I often get, which is, “What is the deal with home prices this year”? My stock answer is a brilliant one, as always, with “I will let you know six months from now”, as my crystal ball broke back in ’88 and has yet to be replaced. But if I had one word to describe the forthcoming months in Marin, it would have to be balanced. 

Look for more homes to come on the market, for starters. Few sellers (or agents) like to go up for sale when it’s dumping with rain, as it has been here. Once the sun comes out starting next month, we’ll see more For Sale signs pop up, but many folks try to be ahead of that and will sell beginning this month and on into our busy spring/summer selling season. But nobody is predicting a frenetic buying frenzy like in 2021, at least not for every home. Prices are forecast to go up 7% for the year, which sounds right, but we’ll see. 

Once those homes do hit the market, watch for the same mantra to continue for those that DO sell. Right property, right condition, right preparation, right price…SOLD, with more than one offer, even. If they were able to be sold last year with mortgage rates around 7%, they will sell this year with them around 6%. Not that anybody gets a 30 year fixed these days. Most opt for a 5, 7 or 10 year fixed, aiming to refinance down the road. But buying should be steady, but we’ll see. Read this blog in July and see how right I was, or wasn’t. 

That’s it for now. Until next time, enjoy February and all of 2023 wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

January is here in Marin, bringing lots of needed rain and lots of questions from everybody on just about everything that has to do with the housing economy: worldwide, nationwide and locally. While I can’t comment on all on the first two, I thankfully do have a bit of feedback and data on where Marin stands with our own, highly localized housing market. “Solid and steady so far”, would sum it up, though that was last year in 2022. Who knows in 2023, but I for one am cautiously optimistic, at least for the average or lower price ranges of the county. I get regular texts, emails or calls on this, along with being stopped in the grocery store (by Jeff, the Manager, today actually) with everyone curious if home prices will ultimately drop here. “Not yet”, is my stock answer, continued with “But we’ll see”. While my crystal ball broke in 1986 (my first year of doing this, go figure), I’ve learned that the only way you can have an idea of where you’re going is to first see where you are, then look back and see where you’ve been. Here’s some data on that.   

The most striking difference between 2021 and 2022 is the volume of transactions. If you follow this newsletter at all (or stop me in the grocery store) you know that we had fewer Active listings for sale last year than any of us can remember. And I have a pretty good memory. For example, as of today, there are only 127 Homes for Sale in the entire county of 255,000 people. That’s WAY down from the 1200 we used to have back in the 90’s, when the average Days on Market (DOM) was around 100. Today it’s 24.

So obviously not a lot of people are selling and it would further explain while our total number of sales is down by more than half! We had 4516 homes sold in 2021 for $9.7 billion and only 1890 in 2022 for $4.1 billion. 

For the year, prices are up only 7%, half of what they were in 2021. This is actually right in our strike zone of annual appreciation here and is a very low, healthy number. Home prices never skyrocket here, but they also don’t plummet in a challenging economy, excluding the national financial crisis of 2008-2010. But even then, we saw brief 10%-15% reductions, far less than most areas. Will that happen here again? It doesn’t feel like it, not given the pent up demand to buy. But read this newsletter in a year and we’ll see.  

That’s it for now. Until next time, enjoy January and all of 2023 wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

It’s December in Marin with recent rains kicking off the beginning of winter here. Seems like the whole country could use more water these days, staving off drought conditions that have gone on for years in some places. Not too far off how it’s been for home buyers over that same time frame, especially in zero growth areas like Marin or in many coastal cities in the state. Inventory has been frustratingly low here, with buyers having to reach deep into their kit bags of patience in order to win whatever competition they were involved in. Compromise and flexibility remained the watchwords during these difficult times, which are far from over. Continued low supply and ever-strong demand have teamed up with local and national real estate market headlines to come up with a new challenge that’s starting to emerge. It’s a question I get frequently, starting with: “When”.

From Buyers:

When do you expect more inventory?

When are interest rates set to come down again? 

When are they going to lower the price on that house? Oh, they’ve set an offer date? Never mind. 

And finally, when are all home prices going to start dropping? 

From Sellers:

When should we put our house on the market and what do we need to do to sell? 

Hoo boy. While I can research some things or come up with a general consensus on others, most of these have to wait to play out over time. As you likely already know, real estate sales and values have both changed, often dramatically depending on the location. It’s also still a very localized and dynamic market though, with sales and prices varying greatly depending on the area and its demographics. Marin is one of the leaders in this, being in such high demand for housing, in almost any market. Almost, that is. What lies ahead could remain very uncertain for both buyers and sellers, with answers to the “when” question not known for months to come. Anybody looking for the top or bottom of any market cycle hopefully knows you won’t know when that is until you’re 3-6 months passed it. Marin is no different.   

Smart sellers spend weeks or months prepping their homes for sale, knowing already that buyers today don’t have the inclination to do much fix up beyond basic cosmetics (think paint, carpet, minimal landscaping). Those sellers who price effectively or even on the low side are often rewarded with a handful of offers that are, yes, still over asking. I see half a dozen recent sales on my screen from the last few weeks with whopping, over-asking, multiple offer closings. Two of those were my own listings and I can tell you firsthand that the buyers are still out in force here, even today. Try telling that to your cousin trying to sell his house in Denver or any other city in America that saw home prices shoot up in the post pandemic market. Like the hare, they are fading fast into the taillights, while prices in tortoise-like Marin are seeing a decline in values with some properties, but none at all in others.   

That’s it for now. It’s a whole new world and I for one am very curious to see what happens. In my thirty-five years of doing this, I’ve never seen anything like what we have now with sales moving up ever so slowly, even in the face of often severe price reductions in over-built areas nationwide. Until next time, enjoy December wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

It’s November in Marin, with cool weather in the forecast as we move into winter. Heck, it even rained the last couple of days. I know, right? Rain, one big 1/4″ of it. Now to what this blog is really about: whether or not this cloudy weather is going to impact Marin home sales and prices.

If you follow this or any other publication nationwide, you already know that real estate sales and values have both changed, often dramatically depending on the location. This continues to be a very localized market dynamic though, often with sales and prices varying greatly depending on a few factors. Prices in Milwaukee are usually far different than they are in Mill Valley, mainly due to the abundance of buildable land back there and the lack of it right here. There is an abundance of listings nationwide right now, while inventory remains low here in Marin. But why is that?

The reasons are many, but most accounts point to the trade factor. Sellers have to become buyers, which means they may reap the rewards of a nice price when they sell, but now they have to buy and the real estate shoe is now on the other foot, so to speak. They now face all those challenges their  buyers faced, not the least of which is not a lot of houses to choose from. This is why I advise all sellers before they hit the market, “Become the buyer and pretend you’re out looking for a house. What price and condition do you want to see in the market that day?” It helps tremendously to look at it like this when selling anything from a car to a house, or in between. 

The second reason is a perceived affordability of a new, often much higher mortgage interest rate. Many homeowners contemplating selling today are frozen in their tracks (often literally in places like Milwaukee) when they see they’re giving up their 3% mortgage for one approaching 7% or even beyond. Some of them sell, especially if they already own a home somewhere else. But those with no house to move to and no mortgage already in place are stalling and not selling. Therein lies the Low Inventory Blues, at it were. 

While slowing has been prevalent here over the last six months, buyers continue to buy. People need a place to live, after all, and with rents high it often becomes a smart rental alternative to own something, even if it’s not your end all first choice of a home. I’ve had several buyers do this in the last couple of months with great results. They don’t have a landlord and they get some much needed tax advantages to owning versus renting. While home prices are certainly down here, the market is not out. Marin home buyers still value our quality of life and the long term return on that investment with years of enjoyment to follow.  

That’s it for now. It’s a whole new world and I for one am very curious to see what happens. In my thirty-five years of doing this, I’ve never seen anything like what we have now with sales moving up ever so slowly, even in the face of often severe price reductions in over-built areas nationwide. Until next time, enjoy November wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

It’s September in Marin, with some of our best weather this month and next. Warm temperatures are the norm temperatures for the next eight weeks before the ultimate fall cooling kicks in. Whether or not the real estate market cools is a whole other story, though we’ve only seen a trace of what other parts of the country are getting. Google the words “real estate market” and you will get over a billion results (1,160,000,000) as of today. If you scroll through you’ll see not one site boasts anything to do with a strong home sales market or prices going up. Quite the opposite, as a matter of fact. I stay on top of some YouTube channels that are fairly balanced in their approach here but the one take away you’ll get (though not overtly) is that it’s a regional phenomenon, one that often varies by neighborhood or town. Given how eclectic Marin can be with housing variations, it’s tough to generalize much here with market trends. One house can sell in a week with five offers still today while the one across the street sits for weeks or months as it doesn’t have the same yard, view, layout, etc. So we continue to buck the national trend due to our fixed supply and growing demand. 

Who knows what lies ahead going forward, but smart sellers are pricing “effectively” to sell, not sit on the market. For the month, 238 homes sold here, which is down 100 from August last year, but inventory is also lower. If homeowners continue to stay and not sell, we should see the same healthy balance going forward. 

Meantime, buyers are still stepping up and buying, often after one or even two price reductions. Yes mortgage rates are higher, but not exactly “high” if you look over time. Many of my buyers think rates are still cheap around 5%, given what they saw in the 80’s and 90’s. I’ve heard more than once that their plan is to refinance in a few years when rates likely will ease and come down. 

That’s it for September. It’s a whole new world and I for one am very curious to see what happens. In my thirty-five years of doing this, I’ve never seen anything like what we have now with sales moving up ever so slowly, even in the face of often severe price reductions in over-built areas nationwide. Until next time, enjoy September wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder