Marin Real Estate Blog

It’s 2020. Wow. When Barbara Walters launched the news program of the same name way back in 1978, who would have imagined what our world today looked like, at least that far into the future. Well it’s here and I for one am astounded by the changes in our society with technology and changes in our society due to technology. Think of all the apps, websites and software not around even twenty years ago, including those for real estate home searches. 

Back in 2000, the internet had not yet seamlessly merged with real estate. There was only one public portal for listings that was courtesy of our own MLS service, but the data was delayed and limited at best. Today, we have over a dozen ways for the non-licensed public to browse new or existing listings, with Zillow, Trulia and Redfin leading the pack, none of which were in existence then. The data is now in real-time, but it too is limited with two very important missing pieces: 

1. Off-Market listings are usually shared only to top agents who have to pay for the software that keeps us updated on what’s Coming Soon, or what properties may not even hit the active market and MLS.  
2. Confidential non-public remarks are posted only to licensees. This is important stuff and often includes a seller’s motivation to sell, pricing strategy, level of activity and a set date to look at offers. None of this is available to the public and often (if not always) can mean the difference between a winning and losing bid by an active buyer. All of this can only be passed on by a licensed agent and those buyers who choose to “go it alone” by relying on the limited data published to a public portal are at an extreme disadvantage.

How can all this be so critical? One word: inventory. 

Marin has one of the lowest attrition rates in the country. Fewer people move out of here voluntarily than almost anywhere else and those who sell, often trade up or down within the county. (The national average hovers around 7% annually, while Marin is closer to 6%). With a long standing steady track record of solid appreciation over the last seventy years (when they started keeping records), many homeowners have learned that once they sell and move out, the chances of getting back in at the same price point usually means a substantial trade off: they can buy back in, but usually get less house and less property in a lesser location. And with so little for sale here, smart buyers hire a local expert to pass on Off-Market listings and to disseminate the Confidential Remarks (it’s literally called that) section of the MLS. I’ve seen my clients win time and again with this, and others lose, continually, so it’s a no-brainer as to whether or not buyers or sellers should hire a local, experienced agent. Going forward in 2020, we see this only increasing in importance, not going by the wayside of a new app’ or site. 

As for home values, we saw a steady 2251 homes change hands for an average price just under $1.7 mil and a median of $1.3 mil. All of these are basically flat from last year, but this is for the entire county. The more accurate data is reflected not only by town, but by area or neighborhood, most of which revolve around level land and proximity to schools, shops, parks and the commute. Those streets that “checked all the boxes” were up, often by quite a bit. Many central, flat areas in Mill Valley, Corte Madera, Larkspur, Greenbrae and Kentfield were up 5%-10%, offsetting less-desirable parts of the county. 

Where do we go in 2020? Well if history and current projections by the big brains are any indication, likely more of the same. Slow and steady appreciation overall will likely rule the markets as it has in the last several years, with no jack rabbit swings in either direction, unlike other investments. But let’s see how this blog reads a year from now. 

Until then, thanks for ready. Let me know of any questions and here’s to a terrific 2020 for all of you. 

TS

ted@gomarin.com

c- 415.377.5222

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

December is here in Marin, bringing cold temperatures (by California standards) and lots of early rain. After a parched fall with the lowest rainfall on record (nearly 0), the skies opened up around Thanksgiving and it hasn’t stopped since.  

What didn’t get a break was the pace of home sales. Last month was one of the busiest for us in recent years with 214 homes and condos changing hands, up 5% from last November. Prices were also up with the average approaching $1.6 mil versus $1.450 mil for the same month in 2018. The median also rose, cresting near $1.2 mil versus $1.1 mil for the same month. Those are both up 10% for the month, which should contribute to a year end in the 7%-8% that was forecast at the start of this year. Just keep in mind those prices are for homes and condos. Just homes themselves are always approx $200k higher in value here. 

Multiple offers continued right through November with my last three listings getting swarmed with buyers who had cash or preapprovals in hand, ready to close in 3-4 weeks, often with all their due diligence done upfront. Smart sellers continue to prep their homes, with turnkey, move-in condition properties continuing to well outpace fixer uppers of any variety. If they order all their inspections and reports weeks before they sell, they likely will receive several clean, As-Is offers with no last minute, unexpected negotiations. People are busy and seem to prefer to spend their time at home, enjoying their surroundings, instead of embarking on major fix up projects. This is a trend that’s likely to continue, so let me know if there’s anything I can advise on here. Being involved in multiple offers as a buyer or seller is a very distinct specialty that isn’t for the meek or unseasoned. There are a lot of moving parts, with any missteps resulting in potentially big financial missteps.   

Where we go from here is anybody’s guess, but if history is any guide, December tends to be our slowest month of the year. This is a great time for sellers to embark on any projects (big or small) to add good value for the early spring market, which we predict will be another strong one for home sales. Buyers, if you find a deal out there that meets at least 6 out of 10 on your Wish List, consider making an offer. Anybody on the market this time of year is usually committed to sell, so don’t be afraid to step up and make an offer. You never know. 

Until then, enjoy December wherever you are and let me know what I can help with. Ask me anything. If I don’t already know the answer, I’ll seek it out. 

Thanks for reading, 

TS

ted@gomarin.com

c- 415.377.5222

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

November is finally here in Marin, following a shaky last week of October. I don’t mean a Halloween Fright Night, I’m talking about 3-4 days of countywide power outages that tested the stability of our normally stoic neighborhoods. End result? We made it through, virtually unscathed, save for some perishables in the fridge. But those who had the foresight to grab some of the free ice handed out by local grocery stores avoided even that. Generally, it was a gigantic inconvenience. But as I told my kids, “It wasn’t that long ago that people lived here with no power at all, ever”. You could see their little technology-driven minds trying to wrap around that one. Like me, they were wondering why outlying, high-risk fire areas had their power cut along with busy shopping centers, gas stations and schools. PG&E apparently has such antiquated grids, they have to throw the big switch to entire towns and neighborhoods, instead of picking and choosing like Southern California Edison. They apparently can turn off one side of the street, while leaving the other with full power. (You can just imagine the extension cords running across from neighbor to neighbor, right?) But not so here and the three questions remaining seem to be:

  1.  Will it happen again? The media touted this as possibly being “the new normal” for many areas.

  2.  If so, how frequently? And, finally…

  3.  What will the impact, if any, be to our real estate market. 

While the first two are in the misguided hands of PG&E, the third one I can take. We’ve networked this through some of the Top Agent groups and the answer seems to be a long one, but with solid optimism. Homes and neighborhoods in Marin that got thrown under the PG&E bus due to no smarter alternative will remain unscathed in value, especially the high demand, close to town properties. Even remote hillside homes here may not see any value loss either, as Marin is fairly cool and green, without a lot of dry vegetation to fuel a wildfire. But homes farther north in outlying Wine Country areas may not be so lucky. We’ve already heard of people wanting to move closer-in to the towns of Sonoma or Napa, where it’s mostly sidewalks and stucco buildings, without a lot of vegetation. The chances of getting stuck on a narrow road are nonexistent when you’re within a couple of miles of town, so watch for any homes in the flat neighborhoods continue to appreciate, much as they will here. So while Marin prices should hold their own (or continue up slowly) watch for the remote, hillside areas of our northern counties perhaps suffer value losses as residents look for safer, flatter locations. San Francisco, of course, will likely see no impact whatsoever. But let’s see how it plays out. 

For the month, we saw 60 fewer home sales over last year, but prices were up 7% to an average of $1,540,000 and a median of $1,290,000. Multiple offers continued right through October with my last three listings getting swarmed with buyers who had cash or preapprovals in hand, ready to close in 3-4 weeks, often with all their due diligence done upfront. Smart sellers continue to prep their homes, with turnkey, move-in condition properties continuing to well outpace fixer uppers of any variety. If they order all their inspections and reports weeks before they sell, they likely will receive several clean, As Is offers with no last minute, unexpected negotiations. People are busy and seem to prefer to spend their time at home, enjoying their surroundings, instead of embarking on major fix up projects. This is a trend that’s likely to continue, so let me know if there’s anything I can advise on here. Getting top dollar is a specialty of mine and something I’m known for throughout the county. Ask me how to get you multiple offers. I’ll help you get it done.  

Until then, enjoy November wherever you are and let me know what I can help with. Ask me anything. If I don’t know the answer, I’ll seek it out. 

Thanks for reading, 

TS

ted@gomarin.com

c- 415.377.5222

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

October is here in Marin and our beautiful fall weather is in full swing. As temperatures drop, the leaves turn and tumble to the sidewalks, yet we will no doubt also have a few Indian Summer stretches that are typical for the month. Call it a mix of cool and warm, much as we’ve seen in home prices and sales here. Values and sales are both up, albeit slightly, but so far no “fall” yet, at least in Marin County which continues to outpace the rest of the Bay Area, and country for that matter. 

Sales data here was just posted for October 1st, representing September. The figures were in line with what most busy agents saw here for late summer and early fall: a smattering of sales, but no great leaps by any means, which is also nothing new. July and August tend to be our slowest months, with things picking up after Labor Day. So what data trickles in is generally in smaller quantity. Still, enough properties sold (310 to be exact) to nudge into the green compared to the same month last year (305), while prices increased also, but ever so slightly. The median reached $1,007,000, up only .07% from the $1 mil even set a year ago. Given how September shaped up, I won’t be surprised to see similar numbers in October and November, which will be the real data points. If my own busy schedule is any indication, watch for Marin to continue into positive territory, albeit slightly. But again, that’s just Marin. 

Around the rest of the bay, the story wasn’t the same, let alone the rest of the country. The number of homes sold dropped overall in other Bay Area counties with some areas (like SF) dropping fairly dramatically. Prices also fell in most other counties, but remember this isn’t a good indicator, with people choosing not to buy or sell in July and August. How we look a few months from now will tell the tale, as we don’t know where we’ve been until we look back behind us. But I expect December thru February will just be the usual slow winter time blues, so those months too aren’t generally representative either. Where it starts to happen with home sales is in late February, continuing to strengthen right until the end of June. This year should be no exception, unless there’s a national (or international) event: economically or politically. 

Until then, enjoy October wherever you are and let me know what questions I can answer. Ask me anything. If I don’t know the answer, I’ll seek it out. 

Thanks for reading, 

Ted

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

September is here and what a great time to be in Marin or basically anywhere in Northern California. Both the weather and the real estate market warm up for the fall season if our typical Indian Summer and home sales ramp up are any guide. Sunny days and warm nights abound as the kids are all back in school, leaving mom and dad time to either put that home up for sale, or go out and look for a new one. The fall market starts now and these next few months are the time for people to make a move before the usual holiday slow down. But what should buyers and sellers do about offers or asking prices? Of course, it depends on many factors, but here’s the short version.

Recent data from last month show a strong, 15% uptick in Marin home sales, which is a surprise as July and August are typically two of our slower months. The median priced dropped a few points (3%) but that just means people bought more less-expensive homes, not necessarily that home prices are dropping. So the big question is, will sales continue up another 15% for September. “Probably”, if history is any guide. Buyers tend to step back in to try and close escrow well ahead of Thanksgiving or Christmas, as sellers like to get moved out for the same reasons. Winter and the holidays tend to be our regroup months in advance of the early spring market months of March and April with the “box checkers” getting the most activity. But let’s talk about that. 

Buyers usually have a Wish List of some kind, with their needs and wants often starting in order of importance. Typical list toppers are often (what I call) the three L’s: Lot, Location and Layout. These are the inherent, fixed attributes of any property and ones you can’t change. Yes, you can change the layout, but it’s often not worth the cost. But level land or a view, how far from town, schools and shops, along with one story or multi-level, these are the things many buyers look for. Sure, there’s sometimes the need for sun, a garden, a pool, four bedrooms or an open kitchen/family room. But these all fall within my Three L’s and they all add up to the “boxes” that buyers check, either literally or mentally off their lists.

Even though we are a county with 75% of the homes being on a hillside, the demand for level land of any kind is often one of the first few boxes to be checked. To this end, smart sellers will invest wisely in lawns and irrigation, sometimes including a little garden or veggie area. We have terrific weather spring, summer and fall, so why not? Next box is often the location of where that lawn or garden may be: how far it is to town, the freeway, or the local market. And finally there’s the number of levels, with one story homes being in the highest demand, or at least a master on the main living level. Seasoned buyers know that rarely are all these attainable and that the perfect home likely doesn’t exist. But they compromise and use smart flexibility to get what they want. Given we have no new construction here and have basically a fixed-supply of homes, these are prudent words to live by and what propel our prices a little higher each year. Given all I know, this year should wind up as no exception to last with prices up in the 6%-8% range on average. We’ll see, but for now, all signs point to Go for a healthy September sales month here in Marin and throughout the entire Bay Area.. 

That’s it for now. Enjoy September wherever you are and stay in touch with any questions. As always, I’m here to help. 

Ted

c 415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com 

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

It’s August already and–wait, what? August? Where did  the summer go? Nowhere! It’s still here and these tend to be the best weather months for the Bay Area. After a fairly mild June and July, we’re looking for more of the same, despite the sizzling heat going on in the rest of the country. Outdoor activities will be at a peak this month as local residents scramble to get in their final days and weeks of vacation before the kids go back to school. Poor little guys, they really get the short end now with only nine weeks of summer, far less than the twelve weeks or more we got as kids. But of course, we never had a ski week or the numerous other extra mid-year days they get now. But what does all that have to do with real estate? Plenty, it turns out. 

As you may have read in this blog, many residents take off during the month of July. This includes home sellers and real estate agents, so inventory and activity both tend to drop significantly, but not always. Last year saw a busy July as smart sellers left (or even put) their homes on the market to capture family buyers who needed to lock into a school district. This year seems to be no exception as we have seen a 32% increase in the number of homes for sale and only a slight 5% drop in properties that went into escrow. So there remains plenty to choose from in all price ranges and buyer activity is off the charts high. I had over 200 folks through a new listing in Larkspur in the first four days just a week ago: from the Thursday Broker’s Open to the Saturday and Sunday open houses. The smart sellers spent a month fixing everything to make it a move-in ready home and were rewarded with four strong offers, all well over asking and two of them all cash with no contingencies of any kind. We closed in just 8 days, as seen here. Let’s see where the last half of summer ends up, but first an interesting note on the economy. 

Despite early fears of the R-word, it appears that a Recession may not in fact be in the cards, at least for this year and given what we currently know. I came across the following this week and found it interesting: If what Americans look for on Google is any indication, we’re nowhere near a recession. DataTrek Research examined domestic internet searches for words like “coupon” and “unemployment,” which were leading indicators of the Great Recession, and found that search volumes are down significantly. People search for the term when they fear a layoff is imminent. Google searches for “unemployment” started increasing in 2005 by more than 5% year over year. Google searches in June were basically flat compared to last year. April and May were slightly lower. “If the Federal Reserve looked at Google Trends they might not be so inclined to cut rates next week,” said one researcher. But cut them they did, with signals they may cut again before the year is over. 

The question now is, will that impact mortgage rates themselves and, in turn, the real estate market? Despite prevailing logic, The Fed does not control mortgage rates. They set the Fed Funds and Discount Rates for overnight loans from bank to bank or to member banks. And given that lower Fed rates can be good for stocks, investors often sell off mortgage bonds to invest in stocks. When bond prices fall, mortgage actually rise. As always, we’ll see what happens. 

That’s it for now. Enjoy August wherever you are and stay in touch with any questions. As always, I’m here to help. 

Ted

c 415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com 

It’s August already and–wait, what? August? Where did  the summer go? Nowhere! It’s still here and these tend to be the best weather months for the Bay Area. After a fairly mild June and July, we’re looking for more of the same, despite the sizzling heat going on in the rest of the country. Outdoor activities will be at a peak this month as local residents scramble to get in their final days and weeks of vacation before the kids go back to school. Poor little guys, they really get the short end now with only nine weeks of summer, far short of the twelve weeks or more we got as kids. But of course, we never had a ski week or the numerous other extra mid-year days they get now. But what does all that have to do with real estate? Plenty, it turns out. 

As you may have read in this blog, many residents take off during the month of July. This includes home sellers and real estate agents, so inventory and activity both tend to drop significantly, but not always. Last year saw a busy July as smart sellers left (or even put) their homes on the market to capture family buyers who needed to lock into a school district. This year seems to be no exception as we have seen a 32% increase in the number of homes for sale and only a slight 5% drop in properties that went into escrow. So there remains plenty to choose from in all price ranges and buyer activity is off the charts high. I had over 200 folks through a new listing in Larkspur in the first four days just a week ago: from the Thursday Broker’s Open to the Saturday and Sunday open houses. The smart sellers spent a month fixing everything to make it a move-in ready home and were rewarded with four strong offers, all well over asking and two of them all cash with no contingencies of any kind. We closed in just 8 days. Let’s see where the last half of summer ends up, now to the economy. 

Despite early fears of the R-word, it appears that a Recession may not in fact be in the cards, at least for this year and given what we currently know. I came across the following this week and found it interesting: If what Americans look for on Google is any indication, we’re nowhere near a recession. DataTrek Research examined domestic internet searches for words like “coupon” and “unemployment,” which were leading indicators of the Great Recession, and found that search volumes are down significantly. People search for the term when they fear a layoff is imminent. Google searches for “unemployment” started increasing in 2005 by more than 5% year over year.  Google searches in June were basically flat compared to last year. April and May were slightly lower. “If the Federal Reserve looked at Google Trends they might not be so inclined to cut rates next week,” said one researcher. 

That’s it for now. Enjoy August wherever you are and stay in touch with any questions. I’m here to help. 

Ted

c 415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com 

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

July is here in Marin. The sun shines daily as residents flourish in the numerous outdoor activities that make our region so popular. Hiking, biking, boating, swimming, surfing, paddle boarding, camping and a whole lot of other words that end in -ing abound, with a big one being “traveling”. July is a popular travel month for all Bay Area residents. As tourists flock here from all parts of the globe, local folks tend to go elsewhere, leaving the roads, trails, markets and malls somewhat empty. This makes it a great month to staycation also, taking in local spots you may not normally enjoy, like the beach, wine country, or even the cable cars of the City. Stay or go, everybody tends to celebrate July around here. But one thing they often tend not to do is buy houses.

While July is one of our busier travel and leisure months, it’s one of our slower home-buying months, historically anyway, as most people tend to be doing the other things we just mentioned. Not everyone though, as Marin is still very much a twelve month real estate market, but the sales volume always drops off from the frenetic months of March thru June. Buyers and sellers both tend to take a breather in July and into August, when the kids go back to school by month end. There’s another short pause thru Labor Day, then things usually pick up again right up until Thanksgiving. Then it’s typically slow holiday and winter market time up to February 1st, when the whole cycle starts over again. Usually, that is. Where we go from here is anybody’s guess as the annual uptick in home prices may have hit the “pause” button also. 

Several local media articles documented only a slight increase (or even slight drop) in the median home price over the last year, off from the frequent double digit appreciation we saw in 2012-2018. Marin was basically flat, up to $1,200,000, or just over 1%, with the exact same number of homes sold year over year (exactly 372) as were many other counties. But look at our stalwarts of tech-heavy Santa Clara and San Francisco counties. Both were down an average of 5%, with the number of homes sold in Santa Clara down 11%. That’s fairly sizable, considering that both areas (and Marin) saw an increase in population. Obviously, many people opted to rent, either by choice or necessity, but likely due to affordability, according to many experts. Rising home prices, combined with rising mortgage rates in 2018, plus limited federal and state tax deductions led to fewer buyers being able to afford our home prices. Read the Marin IJ article here, just know this only addresses the median home price, not the average, which is approx $350k higher at $1,550,000, or the luxury ranges, which saw good activity in the last few months. There have been 22 sales in the $5 mil-$10 mil range this year alone, with 2 others in the $10 mil-$13 mil range. If you’re interested, the high sale was James Hetfield’s place (think: Metallica) at 104 Laurel Grove in Ross for $12.4 mil. 

Where we go from here is anybody’s guess, though the on and offline chatter seems to favor a further slowing right through July. However, if you’re looking to buy or sell in the low price range of any of our twelve towns, the market will remain active, so don’t wait. Sellers, get your place move-in ready and hit the ground running anytime after July 8th. Just be smart and stay with market-value pricing, if not just a hair below to attract multiple buyers. Pretend you’re a fisherman, casting a line out there, into the depths, with a piece of bait on your hook. Do you want a small piece to hook a small fish, or a big one with a big whopping offer? If it’s the latter, price it right and they will bite!

Buyers, you could be in the driver’s seat this month and into next, but be smart and manage that expectation well. Don’t underbid if the property meets most of your requirements. There’s usually very little to choose from in any price range here, so don’t miss out on 10-20 years of memories by trying to be the Super Shopper and losing out to a more realistic buyer. It happens far too frequently, believe me, and kicking yourself on “the one that got away” is no fun.   

That’s it for now. Enjoy July wherever you are and stay in touch with any questions. I’m here to help. 

Ted

c 415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com 

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

June is here in the Bay Area, finally ending a long, drawn out winter and bringing longer, warmer days to grateful residents eager to enjoy the outdoors. It’s also Graduation Month, as they say, with all schools from Pre-K to Dominican University hosting ceremonies to kick start summer for students and propel them on to the next chapter in their lives. Cardboard hats get tossed into the air, photos get taken, hugs abound…now what? For the older students, that could mean continuing on with grad school, taking time off or taking a job and starting at it. Intern salaries at Google average at $90,000 for the first year, on up to $125,000 for certain skill sets. Just slightly higher than the $19,000 a year I made at my first job after UCLA.

By chance, or irony, the average home price back then was just around the average starting salary, making housing “affordable” for those willing to take the leap. Thankfully, income for hard workers has increased over time, but the cost of housing has exceeded that ten-fold, at least around here in the Bay Area. The average home price in Marin is over $1.5 mil, making that first house often out of reach for many, if not for most. But as salaries continue up, will the cost of a home do the same, or will housing appreciation slow down or even drop. Given the rate of population growth in our area, it’s doubtful, but let’s look at that further. 

Besides economic factors like mortgage interest rates, stock market swings and often the headlines that day, real estate is pretty much a supply-and-demand economy. The more homes there are for sale, the cheaper the prices are. Generally speaking, that is. In the Bay Area, the core or nucleus of the housing market for single family homes is basically fixed. Sure they add new high rise units in SF and Oakland, but for a buyer who wants a front yard instead of an elevator’s front door for access to their home, we are pretty much built out. They took all the best lots first, way back when, leaving no more room to add new housing, not unless you go to the outreaches of the east bay.

There’s no exception here in Marin, however. We are pretty much a zero growth area as you’ve seen in this blog over time. And with the Bay Area population projected to grow an additional 1% a year on up to 2040 (don’t ask me why they stopped there), you don’t need to be a trained economist to see that prices of homes here will likely just keep going up, slowly but surely, at least in areas where they can’t add more housing, like Marin County. You can read the full article here, but prices don’t always go straight up. They often flatten out, as we just saw in the last year. The median Bay Area home price was nearly the same last month as it was a year ago, as seen in the SF Chronicle. The article notes a rise of nearly 8% from the previous month, but basically flat from March the previous year. April and May are two big months for home buying, so we’re likely to see that number increase. But still, maybe the market is balancing out to favor both buyers and sellers in the median arena, not just the latter. The luxury end may see a change though, if the recent IPO boom news is any indicator. Too soon to tell on that one, as many shareholders continue to be under a 3-6 month lock up and unable to sell. But what does all that mean for buyers and sellers?

For buyers, I’d say, look to the reason you’re buying. If it’s to stop wasting precious money on rent and build some future wealth, you’re tired of being under your landlord’s thumb, you want to make changes and improvements to your own home or you just want to be in control of your own future, then buy. Don’t do it because you think you can become instantly rich, buy low, then sell high, or any similar jackrabbit wealth-building plan. Buy for the long term (more than three years) and enjoy your new found economic and emotional appreciation for what you have. As the state adds more than 300,000 new residents a year, many of them will want to live where you do (some, literally), pushing prices higher, despite you thinking you “paid top dollar” or “our home will NEVER be worth more than…”. Just watch. Buyers were saying that to me (again, literally) back when the average price here was $250,000. They NEVER expected prices to crest over $500,000. Never, even though they’re now closer to $1,600,000 on average. 

Sellers? Prepare it and price it right, they will come. Get unrealistic or have too high an expectation? They will not. In fact, you’ll actually sell below market value. Buyers here are well-trained, well-prepared and ready to go. Your home will see its highest activity in the first 5-7 days. After that, it levels off, then very slowly starts dropping in value. Granted, the higher price ranges take longer than that. But for the most part, things happen fast here, so why leave money on the table by expecting too much, or by wanting the market to meet your expectations, instead of the other way around.  

That’s it for now. Let me know of any questions, but enjoy June, wherever you are. Stay safe and thanks for reading!

Ted

c 415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com 

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

After a very rainy March (and February, and January…), the skies finally cleared up at the end of the month for one of the first clear weekends in a long time. Out popped the buyers like flowers in a Super Bloom as the Open Houses were bustling and busy. Were they curious neighbors, casual lookers or serious buyers? That will be determined in the days to follow as we wait to see if listings change from Active to Contingent or even straight to Pending, meaning no contingencies. That’s a smart strategy for some, offering to buy with no Loan or Inspection Contingency. But is it for everyone? Let’s talk about that.

If you’re buying your first house or your last house, you have to offer a price, but you also have options when it comes to a couple of major negotiating points: the contingency periods for Inspections and for Financing. You want to be the successful bidder, whether or not there are other buyers and multiple offers. If it’s early in the going, the seller may want to take a pass if your offer feels weak, or less than what they’re expecting. This doesn’t just mean on price, which is only one component of your offer. Even at full price (or more), most CA real estate contracts are written for the buyer and really just an opportunity to “tie it up”, as you hear often. Given nearly all buyers are well-approved in advance for a mortgage these days (unless they’re paying all cash), this mostly comes down to an Inspection contingency, lasting usually from 7-14 days.

The buyer secures price and terms, then proceeds to do inspections. Once receiving their reports, they can opt to move forward, back out or renegotiate the terms of the deal. Sound like the buyers hold all the cards? They do. But sellers know that and often can hold a few cards of their own.

First way to avoid this as a seller? Get all your reports up front: Termite, Home, Sewer Lateral, Roof, Pool if you have one. The buyer can take a week to review all these prior to writing an offer, or ask for a 3 day “Review” period as part of their Inspection Contingency. But either way, you know what you’re selling and they know what they’re buying right up front. The chance of the deal being renegotiated or the buyer walking away are now basically zero.

The other option is to just sell it As Is, with no reports or inspections, but you may just get lot value, or low offers, neither of which benefits the seller, only the buyer.

That’s it for now. Let me know of any questions, but enjoy April, wherever you are. Stay safe, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222
ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

A series of powerful storms brought more rain to Marin over the last two months, along with up to fifteen feet of new snow to the sierras. Okay, so our reservoirs are full and the snow pack will easily take us through next year, great. But all that water from the sky isn’t just a blessing. Many areas of the north bay saw rising creeks, flooding, and even power outages lasting several days (like on our own home in Greenbrae). When these things are going on, people tend to spend less time on planning vacations, home buying or selling, focusing instead on their immediate safety and well-being. If the data is any indicator, that’s exactly what happened last month as rains dampened home sales, starting January 1st and continuing right until the end of February. But you can’t always blame the weather.

Rising mortgage rates, stock market volatility and a 35 day partial government shut down all seemed to add up to a reluctance for winter buyers to brave the storms and go look at real estate, let alone buy it. Most of us busy agents were, well, not very busy: not just because there weren’t a lot of active buyers, but there also weren’t a lot of new active listings to go look at. The result was 5% fewer home sales and only a .5% increase over the same winter period last year. Make no mistake, these numbers should both change dramatically as we enter the home buying season this month, assuming we don’t get even more rain. As I sit here typing this on March 1st, however, I see a series of storms lined up that could do just that, but more on our seasonality in Marin and other parts of the Bay Area.

March thru June is typically our strong home buying/selling season here and in other desirable areas of San Francisco, the Peninsula, Silicon Valley and the East Bay. All neighborhoods see a general uptick over these four months, but certain areas (or even streets) see a dramatic jump in activity and home prices. This continues right up until July 5th, when things slow down and typically stay slow right until the next following March. That’s why many agents say we achieve our annual appreciation in these months, and spend the rest of the year trying to hang onto it. I agree, but will this year be any different?

It’s way too soon to tell, but ask me in a month. We never know where we are in our real estate market until we’re able to look back and see where we’ve been. Only then can we begin to guess where we may be going. But this year, I often hear that “It’s anybody’s guess” where we go in this market. We could stay in the winter doldrums right into the summer, or spring to life this month, as we have for the last eight years running. We don’t need to wait four months to know, but we do know month to month how it’s looking. For any questions on how that looks, let me know.

That’s it for now. Let me know of any questions, but enjoy March, wherever you are. Stay dry and stay safe, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222
ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder