Marin Real Estate Blog

Winter is officially here in Marin as a series of powerful storms brought more rain and sierra snow in the first week of the month. Northern California typically sees this late start to our winter, but not so the housing market. Call that an “early” start as the For Sale signs now start to pop up in early February, kicking off a very early home buying season. The market starts now and the undercurrent momentum we’re seeing indicates it could be another good year, albeit with some signs of caution.

After another year of slow and steady appreciation, local homeowners saw the average home price rise 6%. Not hare-quick, but tortoise-healthy, which generally is a good thing. But with sales slowing in the last half of the year nationwide, some are seeing that as a red flag, even suggesting we’re headed back to the challenges of 2008. This isn’t the case, as the statistics prove the current market is nothing like the one that preceded the housing crash last decade.

The previous bubble was primarily caused by unhealthy levels of mortgage debt. New purchasers were putting down the minimum down payment, giving them little reason to buckle down and hold on during the tough times ahead. At the same time, other existing homeowners were using their houses as ATM’s, drawing from their hard earned investment, leaving them with little (if any) equity.

When prices started to fall, many homeowners found themselves in a negative equity situation, with their mortgage(s) higher than the value of their home. When this happened, they often found themselves in negative equity situations, which caused them to walk away. And so a vicious cycle formed and it took years to recover. In fixed supply/high demand areas like Marin, that was a scant three years, but other areas took more than twice that, with prices only recently recovering above where they were in 2008. Today, the equity situation is totally different.

According to a new report from ATTOM Data Solutions, more than 1-in-4 homes with a mortgage have at least 50% equity, even higher in areas like Marin and parts of the Bay Area where many people own their homes free and clear. Call that a comfortable cushion or a healthy sleep-at-night factor, but it’s yet one more reason to buy and hold onto real estate here. If you’re looking to trade up, down or sideways, now may be the time as the new inventory starts to hit MLS and mortgage rates have surprisingly dipped to new lows.

Let me know of any questions, but that’s it for now. Enjoy February, wherever you are. Stay dry and stay safe, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222
ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

The New Year is officially here in Marin, bringing a perennial chill in the air, along with much-needed rain and Sierra snow pack. The decorations are packed up, celebrations are over and the kids are getting back to school as the bustle settles and things return to normal. But how normal will real estate and the housing market be? Will the chill of last year continue? Let’s talk about that.

Given the repeated Fed rate increases, mortgage rates rose from a low of approx 3.3% in December of 2012 to 4.5% today. One point. That’s it. Hardly a reason for the market to slow, but we also saw new SALT and federal tax deduction limits, along with an increase in housing inventory. Naturally, sales slowed all last year, indicating there’s a good chance we may be entering a new era for the housing market everywhere, not just Marin.

My own prediction for 2019? I’ve had a year to watch and think about that. I’ve researched all the data, charts and graphs, along with some hefty feet on the ground canvassing. Using all these resources, combined with my thirty-two years of experience doing this, here’s what I’ve come up with: I honestly have no idea. This is a new era, apparently and 4.5% of a fixed interest rate is 1/3 of the 13% it was when I started. So what gives and where are we going?

Sorry to disappoint you, but my crystal ball broke years ago and until they come up with a new model with free shipping on my Prime account, I’m not investing in another one. The last ball I had gave me no warning of things to come back in the summer of 2007, so I’m hoping the new and improved crystal ball is much more helpful. But none of the big brains on CNBC, or any agents I’ve talked with have any inclination a crash is coming this time around.

At most the R-word may be of a new dynamic, but not drastic or long term. It could start slow and end quick, so they say, perhaps as early as later this year and into 2020. Probably. After that, it’s anybody’s guess but back to where that leaves us with real estate in Marin for 2019 with some short term predictions.

Inventory will swell early this year. It tends to be weather-dependent with many sellers holding off a week or two if a big storm is coming, but new listings should pop aplenty onto MLS this month and into February. Long gone are the days of a June 1st start date to the housing market here. It went from early summer to early spring, now becoming mid winter for the For Sale signs to sprout up from front yards. This will be a welcome sign (literally) for the droves of buyers waiting in the wings, preapproved or with all-cash in hand, ready to pounce and write up a strong offer. Even if a 30% increase in inventory takes place, that’s still a fraction of what it used to be. More people continue to want to live here than don’t and the supply/demand economics will stay in place, inching prices up perhaps, or keeping them flat at the very worst. Nobody I’ve talked to see’s a decrease, but that’s only here in our fixed supply/growing demand Marin market. I can’t say the same for Phoenix or any secondary home market, where my colleagues say it is very slow and slowing further, often dramatically.

Buyers, don’t wait too long and of course, we know you’re not waiting for that perfect house. I’ve yet to hear of anyone buying the perfect home here. It may be either the perfect location, lot or layout (Ted’s 3 L’s) but doubtful all three. Even if that’s the case, the condition likely won’t be perfect. Keep in mind, I don’t specialize in the $100m + properties though). But typically, home buyers get as close as they can, then make them their perfect home. Just be flexible and don’t expect prices to drop down on well-priced listings in “A” locations. Overpriced homes will still be aplenty though and they will definitely have to face reality if in fact the seller wants to sell. Many “are just trying it”, which is fine and often basically free to do. But if a property checks a lot of the boxes on your Wish List, don’t wait. Make an offer and make a move. You’ll never regret it, I promise.

That’s it for now. Enjoy January and 2019 wherever you are. Thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222
ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

The New Year is officially here in Marin, bringing a perennial chill in the air, along with much-needed rain and Sierra snow pack. The decorations are packed up, celebrations are over and the kids are getting back to school as the bustle settles and things return to normal. But how normal will real estate and the housing market be? Will the chill of last year continue? Let’s talk about that.

Given the repeated Fed rate increases, mortgage rates rose from a low of approx 3.3% in December of 2012 to 4.5% today. One point. That’s it. Hardly a reason for the market to slow, but we also saw new SALT and federal tax deduction limits, along with an increase in housing inventory. Naturally, sales slowed all last year, indicating there’s a good chance we may be entering a new era for the housing market everywhere, not just Marin.

My own prediction for 2019? I’ve had a year to watch and think about that. I’ve researched all the data, charts and graphs, along with some hefty feet on the ground canvassing. Using all these resources, combined with my thirty-two years of experience doing this, here’s what I’ve come up with: I honestly have no idea. This is a new era, apparently and 4.5% of a fixed interest rate is 1/3 of the 13% it was when I started. So what gives and where are we going?

Sorry to disappoint you, but my crystal ball broke years ago and until they come up with a new model with free shipping on my Prime account, I’m not investing in another one. The last ball I had gave me no warning of things to come back in the summer of 2007, so I’m hoping the new and improved crystal ball is much more helpful. But none of the big brains on CNBC, or any agents I’ve talked with have any inclination a crash is coming this time around.

At most the R-word may be of a new dynamic, but not drastic or long term. It could start slow and end quick, so they say, perhaps as early as later this year and into 2020. Probably. After that, it’s anybody’s guess but back to where that leaves us with real estate in Marin for 2019 with some short term predictions.

Inventory will swell early this year. It tends to be weather-dependent with many sellers holding off a week or two if a big storm is coming, but new listings should pop aplenty onto MLS this month and into February. Long gone are the days of a June 1st start date to the housing market here. It went from early summer to early spring, now becoming mid winter for the For Sale signs to sprout up from front yards. This will be a welcome sign (literally) for the droves of buyers waiting in the wings, preapproved or with all-cash in hand, ready to pounce and write up a strong offer. Even if a 30% increase in inventory takes place, that’s still a fraction of what it used to be. More people continue to want to live here than don’t and the supply/demand economics will stay in place, inching prices up perhaps, or keeping them flat at the very worst. Nobody I’ve talked to see’s a decrease, but that’s only here in our fixed supply/growing demand Marin market. I can’t say the same for Phoenix or any secondary home market, where my colleagues say it is very slow and slowing further, often dramatically.

Buyers, don’t wait too long and of course, we know you’re not waiting for that perfect house. I’ve yet to hear of anyone buying the perfect home here. It may be either the perfect location, lot or layout (Ted’s 3 L’s) but doubtful all three. Even if that’s the case, the condition likely won’t be perfect. Keep in mind, I don’t specialize in the $100m + properties though). But typically, home buyers get as close as they can, then make them their perfect home. Just be flexible and don’t expect prices to drop down on well-priced listings in “A” locations. Overpriced homes will still be aplenty though and they will definitely have to face reality if in fact the seller wants to sell. Many “are just trying it”, which is fine and often basically free to do. But if a property checks a lot of the boxes on your Wish List, don’t wait. Make an offer and make a move. You’ll never regret it, I promise.

That’s it for now. Enjoy January and 2019 wherever you are. Thanks for reading.

Happy New Year

Ted

415.377.5222
ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

December is here in Marin and the warmth of November is long gone. Both the rare 80 degree temps and the heat in the housing market I wrote about last month disappeared, as a cold December wind blew both right out of the county. That means winter is officially here, arriving right on time with light local rain and snow in the Sierras. Homes are decorated for the holidays with lights and cheer, but with one thing missing: For Sale signs.

As is typical this time of year, many people are just “on to other things”: spending time with family, shopping, staying in, going away, you name it. What it often doesn’t mean is dealing with the home selling or buying process. Many home sellers withdraw their properties from the market to take a breather or to focus on those other things. Many home buyers do the same. Everybody needs a break sometimes and dealing with the often daily grind of a real estate sale is no exception. But is it a smart move to not make a move? All depends.

For buyers, the dead of winter can often mean a rare opportunity to get a good deal here. There’s a chance they can grab a property that’s been sitting on the market, passed over and ripe for an offer. And that doesn’t mean multiple offers, either. Buyers just have to look past the dead flowers, brown lawn or chilly environment–literally–as many sellers forget to leave the heat on for spontaneous showings. I have always said that the rainy days of winter are a buying opportunity here, though few take me up on that.

For sellers? Well, I get it that you need and deserve a break and want to leave MLS and the selling process. It can be a grind to have your house perfect everyday in case there’s one of those spontaneous showings. So I actually support dropping off the market for the winter months. Spring is our busy time, so maybe wait until late February here to capture the full swing of the March/April buying season. We just don’t know what the temperature will be economically and you will be joined by a lot of other sellers with the same plan. If you leave your house on the market in the winter, you could be one of the only choices out there, so who knows, maybe keep it on and see what happens?

Either way, the holidays are here and let’s all stay focused on the important things, like friends and family. We’re here for a good time, not a long time, as they say, and Marin real estate will always be around for another day if you want to take a break. If not, I’m here to help. Just let me know what I can do.

That’s it for now. Enjoy December wherever you are, and thanks for reading.

Happy Holidays,

Ted

415.377.5222
ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

November is here in Marin, with unusually warm temperatures for this late in the fall. I’m talking about the housing market of course, but thankfully the air temperature is up also. Both finally came around after it was looking for awhile there like “the fall that never was”.

Seasonally, both tend to heat up just after Labor Day, the unofficial start of our warm Indian Summers and the fall buying season. Neither showed up in September, as you may have read in last month’s newsletter, aptly entitled “Cooler Temps For Marin Homes and Homeowners”. Not so in October. We saw extended weeks of warm weather and the buyers stepped back in to buy. I can’t explain the temperature variant, but we know many buyers took advantage of reduced prices, many of which had come down more than once. That resulted in a healthy 4.5% median home price increase over last year, which is the lowest of all the nine Bay Area counties. This is good news as slow and steady usually means healthy and positive for any financial market.

But they also likely are getting in ahead of the upcoming Fed rate hike in mid December, figuring out that the cost of waiting can add up to hundreds of dollars monthly (depending on the size of the loan) or thousands annually. There are graphics available on that readily available online, many called “The Cost of Waiting”.

But there’s another reason people tend to buy in the fall, even if it’s late into October. Call it Unpacking in Time For the Holidays. Think about it: if you make an offer in October, you’re not closing until November. If you’re early enough into the process, you can enjoy Thanksgiving in your new home. But at the very least, you’ll be well set up by whichever December holiday you celebrate: Hanukkah, Christmas, or even New Year’s Eve. Financials are important, but real estate is still a people business, primarily and most importantly. Normally, buyers like to move in and sellers like to move out weeks before the start of any upcoming major holiday, with July 4th being the exception. That’s a big moving month here in the county as people get unpacked and ready for school to start in mid August. (Yes, today’s kids get ripped off with their short summer in my opinion, but I digress).

Sales volume was down (again) at 7% fewer homes trading last month than in 2017, but this is also a trend we’ve seen as fewer buyers qualify (or want to buy) in the higher price ranges, skewing the busy activity in the lower ranges. We’ve yet to see the $2mil-$5mil market take off with many well-priced homes just sitting in that strata.

Where we go from here is anybody’s guess, though if this nice weather continues (it’s 80 degrees today as I write this), watch for more sales at or close to asking. Whatever happens, November will be a telling month for Marin real estate.

That’s it for now. Enjoy this month wherever you are, and thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222
ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

It’s October in Marin, usually one of our warmer months for both weather and home sales. So far? Not exactly in either case. I haven’t looked up any weather data, but September was one of the coolest I can recall, ever. Gone were the lazy, hazy, crazy days of Indian Summer throughout the county. Where we used to see regular temps in the 90’s, well, we got a lot of 70’s and 80’s. Cooler indeed, but what about home sales?

Those too were almost chilly as buyers seem to take a breather from the frenetic pace of both spring and summer. Early signs at month end point to a healthy fall market, as buyers returned both online and at private showings with their agents. But questions remain as to whether or not tax changes enacted last December were finally sinking in with home buyers, many of whom are pairing down their purchase expectations. The thinking may be to compromise on a lesser size and lower price of a home in anticipation of paying a bit more in taxes next year. But we’ll see.

Who really knows as buyers (and sellers) do not submit to any Survey Monkey or polling to tell us what they’re thinking. They act more like those schools of fish we saw in the National Geographic videos in school: they all just change direction at the same time, without any communication between them.

What direction they go in October is now anybody’s guess. Both sale and rental inventory remain low and people continue to pour into the state, seeking California quality of life.They gotta live somewhere and many of them will seek out all we have to offer here in the Bay Area. It’s just a question of how warm their own buying temperature is, which may or may not be in step with the weather outside. Whatever happens, this will be a very interesting month for Marin real estate.

That’s it for now. Enjoy October, wherever you are, and thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222
ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

September is here (already?) in Marin, one of our best weather months and the unofficial restart to the home buying season. I hear this is pretty much true in the rest of the state, also, but no idea if that’s the mantra throughout the country. Individual pockets of home sales can be like the weather: despite the sun being out, one neighborhood, town or county may be hot, while others are cool or at the least temperate. Marin is no exception.

Mt. Tamalpais, East Peak

We have twelve towns, fifty different neighborhoods and as many weather patterns, with home sales following in step, even getting down to the street itself. Due to our topography, the dearth of level land runs roughly at only 25%. This means that 3 out of 4 listings are generally on a hillside, so more supply equals less demand. Sure some of those may have wide open bay views, making them more desirable to many buyers. But level lawns, sidewalks and lemonade stands still rule the highest on the desirability charts, though some homes have both outstanding views and a small yard, making them right up there on the want-list also. (My current listing at 197 Corte Ramon in Greenbrae, has this, but they are rare, otherwise). Still, a 2,000 sq ft 3 Br home on the flats will sell for at least 25% more than the same home on the same street, just up the hill a bit. Supply and demand, that’s it. But as the population continues to age, more buyers are taking advantage of one story homes, or at least a place with the master on the main living floor.

Weather can be the same story. That low down house in the flats can be protected from the westerly breeze and warm, while the house on the hill can be cooler by up to ten degrees. And don’t get me started on the cooler temps overall of southern Marin. In the spring and summer, it can vary by up to twenty-five degrees, though fall and winter tend to both run in step countywide.

For the year, the median home price rose 9% to $1.325 mil, while the Days on Market (DOM) dropped to an average of 24 days, down from 30 this time last year. Fewer people are moving, so buyers have less to choose from. Those who have been looking for awhile soon learn that compromise and flexibility are the key to their success. With mortgage rates set to rise (possibly twice more this year), now may be the time for that compromise, if only for the long term, economic savings.

That’s it for now. Enjoy September, wherever you are, and thanks for reading.

Ted
415.377.5222
ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

August is here in Marin, and what a great time to be in the county, or pretty much anywhere in the state. The weather is near-perfect as many residents take off from work for the last gasp of summer. This means families with school age kids, but also many others, including real estate buyers and sellers, even agents.

While sales are at pace with the first seven months of last year, it’s still typically a lazy time around here. The malls and markets are slower, as are the open houses and client calls or emails. Considering we typically see a ramp up after Labor Day, many folks with housing needs tend to jump offline for the last few weeks here with an eye on ramping up in early September. An influx of new inventory is healthy for everyone, and we are likely to see that again.

At least that’s how it usually goes. Who knows this year, what with some lingering uncertainty out there, but with some segments of the market still in strong demand, now could be the time to seize the month and put up that For Sale sign, or write an offer on that house that just came on the market. Think about it, you still may not be able to close until October 1st, depending on your timing. Thanksgiving and Christmas won’t be that far behind, so maybe make a move now to beat the post Labor Day rush and be long unpacked in your new place. Either way, it can be tricky with timing, so let me know how I can help.

That’s it for now. Enjoy August, wherever you are, and thanks for reading.

Ted
415.377.5222
ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

Summer is here in Marin and what a great time to live in northern California. The kids are out of school by the end of June and many go back in August, so July is our only full vacation month for families. And vacation they do. As I write this, local roads, shopping malls, markets and even the gym are basically empty as most people seem to be anywhere but here. So where do they go?

Our county is one of the most beautiful in the state, so a local Staycation is always an option. But still, friends, family and clients tend to head to Tahoe, Hawaii, southern Cal or any number of places. As for me, I’m heading to Austin Texas for the first time to visit Kathryn’s family. Her brother-in-law, John, runs a large fireworks show there and I’m told the one for the Fourth is a doozy. So you know what that means. That’s right! Like any boy at heart, I’ll be begging to press the button to send the colorful sky bombs aloft. Stay tuned for more!

As for the real estate market, the slowdown which started early for us this year continues. What used to happen beginning July 5th, now tends to start in mid June, with an overall slowness being felt pretty much in all price ranges. That doesn’t mean “deadsville”, just from frenetic to only fairly steady and still busy. The lower and mid range of any of our twelve towns continues to outperform any other sector and stay robust. Multiple offers still abound as buyers lock in mortgage rates that are still cheaper than paying rents. You think home prices here are high, do some research on the rent for that property you’re looking at and you’ll be astounded to see that the rent often exceeds your monthly mortgage payment. And with prices continuing to slowly go up, buying is usually the smart long term move if you plan on being there at least two years.

That’s it for now. Enjoy July wherever you are. Any real-time questions though, let me know what I can do to help. Thanks for reading and here’s to a great 2018 for all of us.

TS

Text or call 415.377.5222 or ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

It’s June in Marin County and summer is on its way. The hills are still green from the March rains and the kids are getting ready to leave school for some summer fun. Nothing like Marin (or all of California) in the summer. I grew up here and the weather is near-perfect for outdoor activities of all kinds. It’s never too hot or too cold for the beaches, the bay, hiking, biking, walking, or just lazing about. Stay locally, go to Tahoe, LA, San Diego or even Hawaii, it’s all good for a great summer break.

What we aren’t seeing, however, is much of a break for Marin home buyers. I’ve heard the phrase “we want to lock in…” from buyers several times this year already. That would be their sales price, to basically fix their property tax figure and a mortgage interest rate to literally fix that also. As The Fed held interest rates steady last month, many buyers saw that as a sign for them to likely raise at the next meeting or sooner. So smart home seekers are becoming home buyers quickly, grabbing fixed interest rates (usually a 10 year or 30 year term) so they know what they have to pay each month going forward. More importantly, they’re locking in a price on an asset that is very likely just going up in value as more people pour into the state and attempt to somehow move to Marin for our excellent quality of life. But more on that now.

Besides out of area buyers, we are seeing a LOT of them coming over from San Francisco. Our average sale price around $1.5 mil isn’t cheap, but it is to these people, where that barely gets you a condo in many areas. They come over here, see a nice yard, sidewalks, parks, schools and shops often within walking distance and they go, “We’ll take it!” With high rise construction only continuing there and no way to widen the roads, they are also escaping likely future gridlock downtown and on the waterfront areas, so Marin must look pretty attractive to them.

Going forward, we’ll see, but there’s no slow down in sight for the move upwards of appreciation. No matter what buyers are paying now, it will seem cheap down the road, just as it’s been for nearly all of my 30 + years of doing this. Besides a few down or flat years during the national mortgage meltdown, prices have always moved up here, slowly and methodically in the 5%-9% range usually, though the lesser priced ranges of any town are higher than that, more like 10%-15%. So “lock in” may be very wise, indeed.

That’s it for now. Enjoy June wherever you are. Any real-time questions though, let me know what I can do to help. Thanks for reading and here’s to a great 2018 for all of us.

TS

Text or call 415.377.5222 or ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder