Marin Real Estate Blog

It’s May in Marin County and spring has sprung. The “Miracle March” rains brought popping flowers and green hillsides like you can’t believe and the entire county is literally shining with all the budding foliage. What’s missing from front yards, however, are those much-needed For Sale signs. Whether it’s uncertainty (or certainty) about the economy going forward, a belief in strong future appreciation, or both, for some reason, most home owners are staying put, leaving most home buyers no choice but to dig deeper into what I call “The Three C’s”: Cash, Creativity and Compromise. If they want to win instead of taking a half-baked stab at it, they absolutely will need to pony up more money than they want and buy a less-than-perfect home in a not-so-perfect location. You gotta start somewhere though and with prices going up and fewer homes than every for sale, what more can you do?

First some background. When I started in real estate back in the Jurassic Era of the mid 80’s, there were roughly 1400 homes and condo’s for sale for buyers to choose from at an given time. This isn’t a ton for our county of 255,000, which is only a slight population increase over the last 30 years. But if you think THAT isn’t a lot of homes to choose from, today, buyers have only approx 400 at any given time. And that’s now, during the busiest listing time. Three months ago, the number was 250. You don’t have to have a degree in economics to figure that the cost of your supply is likely going to increase, given this scenario of growing demand.

For this month, watch for well-priced, well-located listings to see multiple offers, up to half of them all cash, especially in the lower price ranges. A lot of empty-nesters are trading down to smaller one story homes that are walkable to shops and services, many of them rich with cash after selling their own big homes and with no intention of getting a mortgage.

Speaking of which, mortgage rates are set to rise again, likely above 5% on average. Will that dampen the buying party? Who knows. It’s been years since we’ve seen anything like that, even though it’s effectively 3% money after your interest write off (up to a $750k mortgage). A lot cheaper than the 13% they were when I first started. But we’ll see.

That’s it for now. Enjoy May, wherever you are. Any real-time questions though, let me know what I can do to help. Thanks for reading and here’s to a great 2018 for all of us.

TS

Text or call 415.377.5222 or ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

April is here in Marin County and the sun is out. For now, anyway. After record rain and Sierra snowfall, the trees, flowers and weeds (in my yard, anyway) popped aplenty.

What hasn’t popped up in many yards, however, are For Sale signs. Not yet, anyway. Sure, rains tend to dampen the process of launching on MLS, but given that March (and April) are one of our busiest months for selling, you’d think more people would have taken a chance and gone out there to test the busy market. The month has just begun, so we’ll see where we go from here.

The bigger questions seems to be, in an inventory-short market such as ours, will sellers try to capture this 8th year of appreciation, or stay put to ride out the uncertainty of the new tax changes. And if they do sell, where will they go? The sellers I’ve been talking to each seem to be in their own unique situations and very few of them show conviction as to which way to go: Sell and move out of Marin? Sell and trade up, down or sideways in Marin? Sell and rent here or elsewhere? All are possible and all take some planning and hard work.

But let’s say they do choose to move out of Marin. They’ve sold their house for a ton of money, now what? Cheaper locations to live are plentiful. Nearly every place in the U.S. is less-expensive than Marin, but there are reasons for that. Namely, our quality of life is pretty tough to beat. We have great weather, that has only gotten better in recent years, no smog, little crime or heavy traffic, miles of hiking and biking, all with over 75% dedicated open space. The only thing pushing people out of California to other areas could be the new tax changes, which is also too soon to tell if that will be the case.

Whatever happens, look for property values to be in step with population changes that may occur in your area. Here in Marin, all of us busy agents have lists of buyers in every price range, eager to buy and lock in a mortgage before rates push ever-higher. I wouldn’t bet on prices declining here, at least over the next six months. Not yet, anyway. But we’ll see.

That’s it for now. Enjoy April, wherever you are. Any real-time questions though, let me know what I can do to help. Thanks for reading and here’s to a great 2018 for all of us.

TS

Text or call 415.377.5222 or ted@gomarin.com.

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

March rolled into Marin recently with a thunderous roar, literally. The unusual long spell of dry skies opened up and when it rained, it poured. This was a good thing as we needed the rain, frankly. Complaints around town were few and luckily there weren’t a lot of high winds to topple any of our mature trees. Okay, Ted, but what does this have to do with real estate?

Plenty, is the answer. First of all, we don’t see a lot of sellers put their homes on the market during a big (or even small) storm. This is a smart call. After all, you want buyers to stream through, not a stream running through your front yard. People come out in droves on sunny weekends in Marin, some to buy, some just to shop and some to borrow remodel ideas for their own projects. Whatever the reason, the better the weather, the better the turnout. And the better the turnout, the better the number of offers will be. Even if it’s a clear day in the winter months, buyers are looking to buy most days of the year.

They just seem to shop more when the sun is out. I mean, don’t sunny skies just signal, well, sunny skies? People tend to buy things when they feel good, I think. Like when you go to Hawaii on vacation. You feel so good over there in the warmth and being away from your job, you end up buying all sorts of things you wouldn’t ordinarily spend money on: local trinkets, t-shirts, aloha wear, even a Timeshare on occasion. You’re in such a good mood, it’s easier to part with your cash and the same rings true for real estate, here anyway.

This is one reason so many people buy in the warm months of April, May and June. But also as many of them want to close escrow and get unpacked and set up in time for the summer, or for school to start in August. So if you’re a seller and thinking of selling, wherever you are, get going and get that great house on the market! Just try to make sure and time your first (or even second) open house when it’s sunny. The feel-good dynamic should trickle on up right into your bank account. And the buyers are out there, believe me.

That’s it for now. Enjoy March, wherever you are. Any real-time questions though, let me know what I can do to help. Thanks for reading and here’s to a great 2018 for all of us.

TS

Text or call 415.377.5222 or email ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

February is here in Marin, led off by spring-like weather that caused many trees and flowers into thinking it was time to wake up. While vibrant colors sprung up in the local landscape, so too did a few For Sale signs, possibly signaling an early spring-like start to the local home sale season. Apparently the sun sent many sellers the message that it was time to shake off the winter slumber and to get some buyers through the front door. And through the doors they’re starting to venture. But will this year be a strong repeat of the last eight solid seasons in a row? Despite new tax laws in place, many experts are saying, hands down, “yes” and I tend to agree.

They’re telling us that Marin housing prices should increase again slowly but surely, much like last year, which saw a 4.2% bump overall but nearly twice that in some price ranges. A home in Marin remains one of the most important assets for our residents and as long as Consumer Confidence remains near its 18 year high, home values here should remain in step. Even if mortgage rates increase, it will likely only be minimally due to the offset by low inflation and low interest rates from overseas banks.

Inventory will remain low and Demand will remain high. Our supply of buildable land is basically fixed and most busy real estate agents have lists of buyers with a variety of needs, many of whom have been looking for years, not months. As of today, there are only roughly 150 total single family homes for sale in the entire county. Low supply and high demand? You get it and we don’t see that changing anytime soon, so Marin property should continue to appreciate.

It’s too soon to tell if the buyers will truly be back in force, as there has been a change in affordability for many of them. But so far, none of us agents has seen the email, text or call saying, “We are abandoning our plans to buy due to the new tax changes.” Less tax write-offs are better than no write-offs at all, so renting continues to be unattractive financially, both short and long term. But the season is just starting and we are all anxious to see where this goes.

Any real-time questions though, let me know what I can do to help. Thanks for reading and here’s to a great 2018 for all of us.

TS

Text or call 415.377.5222

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

December is here in Marin and the housing market has once again cooled with the weather. Right on schedule, we saw a drop off in activity prior to Thanksgiving as many buyers put their housing searches on hold and a seemingly equal number of sellers started to pull their homes from the market. This “break” is a regular course in our county (and many, I’m told) and is a healthy one. We all need a break now and then. What better time than the holidays to focus on family, fun and food, so long as you don’t use too much SALT.

That’s right, there’s a lot of talk out there now on the State And Local Taxes (SALT) bill just passed by the Senate, capping capping deductions for state and local income taxes and up to $10,000 in property taxes. There’s an additional proposal to limit mortgage interest deductions on loans up to (only) $500,000. Fewer deductions means less affordability to some degree. But who knows what will really happen, as we have no history on this. It could mean nothing, or it could lead to a small decrease in property values in Marin and in much of California, according to the estimates.

There’s not much we can do on our end except wait and see. But we feel as long as people continue to want to move to any low (or no) growth area like Marin, we expect demand to remain high and the supply to remain fixed. As always, compromise and flexibility will have to remain in place for both buyers and now, yes, even sellers. Buyers just may have to reduce their expectations on getting that fourth bedroom and may have to make it work with three. Sellers may not get that whopping over asking offer they were hoping for.

Let me know what I can do to help. The market is changing, often by the day or week. Thanks for reading and here’s to a great holiday season for all of us.

TS

Text or call 415.377.5222 or ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

keeps home buyers away from the Marin market, is the full sentence there. Let’s see what ultimately happens as it’s too soon to tell. But yes, November is here in Marin, with signs of an early winter (read: rain) already on the way.

We’ve all read the forecasts for another El Nino, La Nina, La Bamba, La Cucaracha, or my favorite still, The Macarena. Just don’t get me going on the dance floor with that one. The Emergency Room at Marin General Hospital is already busy enough with buyers in shock at the home prices here. And I got news for ya, folks: it ain’t gettin’ any cheaper, at least given what we’re all seeing and reading.

A recent front page article in our Marin Independent Journal touted a 19% rise in our median price to $1 mil, up from $840k. However, this is for both homes AND condo’s. Homes themselves reached a median of $1.225 mil with condo’s being $589k, greatly tweaking the data. Rarely do people purchase both in one transaction, so why not separate them, right? Anyway, at over $1.2 mil, you can see why Bay Area Sticker Shock isn’t just a syndrome, it’s a medical malady in some areas. Like this one, SF or the peninsula.

So what’s a home buyer to do? Well, I sure wouldn’t wait around for a correction of any kind if I were you. A winter slow down? Absolutely, and you often see some pretty good deals happen in late November, December and into January. But by February 1st, we are rockin’ and rollin’ here and I don’t refer to my aforementioned injury inducing dance moves. Prices sometimes slow here, but they only drop if there’s a nationwide economic rattling event, like the mortgage meltdown of 2007. Other than that, they aren’t making any more land in Marin, so don’t wait for a fall off in prices, not unless you know something we don’t.

Sellers? Keep your prices realistic, or you’ll be one of those who sells at BELOW market value, due to value-killing overpricing. We still see it everyday and it’s very real. Keep it safe and sane and you’ll do just fine. Greed is not good, despite what Michael Douglas said in “Wall Street” and the buyers will send you into more DOM (Days On Market) than you’ll want to see, dropping your value slowly as the days tick by.

Let me know what I can do to help. The market is changing, often by the day or week. Thanks for reading and here’s to a great holiday season for all of us.

TS

Text or call 415.377.5222 or ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

October is here in Marin, with nothing but warm blue sky on the horizon. Literally. The days are gorgeous and the sunsets amazing this time of year. Nature’s free show, as I tell my kids. “Let’s go outside and look at that,” I say. They do, and go, “Oh”. Kids. What are you gonna do.

With everybody outside this time of year, there’s plenty to do, along with sky-watching. The water is its warmest out at Muir or Stinson beach, with good surf or SUP in high gear. Hiking and biking too, make their firm imprint before the rains (presumably) of winter hit. You may recall last Halloween being a freak early storm, which obviously turned out to be a precursor of wetness to come. The county and the state both saw record rains, with hundreds of feet of cumulative snow in the Sierra. What will this winter bring? Who knows, just like nobody knows what will happen with Marin County home prices. But if you guess it will be another “up” year for rain and home values, you’re probably right.

Beginning in mid November though, our home sale market usually takes a much needed breather. Yes, buyers are still out in force and homes do remain for sale, but the goal for both buyers and sellers is often to complete a transaction by one of three dates: Thanksgiving, Christmas or New Year’s Eve. As the progress of an escrow takes weeks, not days, you pretty much have to be under contract by November 1st to reach Thanksgiving, or December 1st to close by Christmas or New Year’s. Not set in stone, just a time-proven trend.

Sellers that want to sell will keep their homes on the market right thru January 1, with buyers going out to look even in the worst of storms. For both, it’s a decision and process with long term consequences, with a little sky water not hurting anyone.

For you? Let me know what I can do to help. The market is changing, often by the day or week. As always, let me know of any questions. Thanks for reading and here’s to a great fall season for all of us.

TS

Text or call 415.377.5222 or ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

September is here in Marin, kicked off by record high temps and a touch of smoke in the sky from wildfires in neighboring counties. None here, thankfully. Ordinarily, this is our hottest month anyway, defining Indian Summer with a capital I and S. Who knows this year, what with climate change and all. But August had to be one of the coolest on record that I can remember. People are talking about it all over the place, with topic #2 often being the price of our real estate, which shows no signs of cooling on its own, not that we can see.

As our local headlines touted in the Marin IJ recently, the average price hit $1.6 mil for the county (that’s one point six million dollars) with the median hitting $1.3 mil. Big numbers, yes, but still cheap by San Francisco standards, let alone the Peninsula, where $1.6 mil won’t buy you a dog house. Or maybe it would, just a very nice dog house on a small lot.

Will home prices fall throughout the Bay Area as the season changes from summer? Not likely, from what we all see on our screens and read online. Too many people want to live here and they just aren’t making any more real estate. Great if you already own, tough if you don’t. But smart buyers know this and continue to pony up and pay what they need to in order to stop renting and start building equity.

Stay tuned for what September ends up bringing us, besides more warm weather. As always, let me know of any questions. Thanks for reading and here’s to a great fall season for all of us.

TS

Text or call 415.377.5222 or <a href=mailto:ted@gomarin.com>ted@gomarin.com</a>

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

August is here in Marin and what a month this usually is. Weather is near-perfect with lots to do outside all around the county or state. Lake Tahoe is at capacity as we found out after heading up to enjoy a couple days of summer fun and a some great food. Go up midweek if you can for a bit less busy-ness, but still plenty of people around having a great time in the great outdoors of Northern Cal.

The kids enter the home stretch here before heading back to s-c-h-o-o-l. (You have to be careful using that word around some of our local students, like my son), meaning only a few more weeks of camps, play dates or hang outs as they’re apparently called by our teens. But wait, what? Isn’t this supposed to be real estate blog? Yes, and I’m getting to that!

What I was going to say was, is everybody on vacation, like buyers and sellers too? Not necessarily. As you may know, August is typically one of our slower buying months, right up there with January, though for a completely different reason in a totally different season. What we get in the dead of winter is just that: the deadness of post-holiday, rainy (or snowy) blues where everybody pretty much hibernates until mid February. It’s then off to the races for our busy spring market.

In August, a lot of people go on vacation: buyers, sellers and even real estate agents (see above for more clarity), albeit usually not for long. So our usually low inventory stays typically low until after Labor Day. This could be a window of opportunity for some sellers to pass through as they could very well be the only listing in that area and price range. Trouble is (and it’s always something, right?) there are fewer buyers to push up that price into multiple offer, over-asking territory. So what’s a seller to do.

Don’t play chicken with the market, that’s what. If you gotta sell, you sell. If you can wait, maybe go ahead and wait til after Labor Day, but you just may see more competition in your price range, your area or even on your street. More will come on the market then, I promise, and there will also be more buyers looking to close escrow and move in by Thanksgiving or Christmas at the latest. But don’t mess around too much by trying to time the market. Work with your personal time frame first and you’ll never go wrong.

Buyers, keep looking, even if you’re on vacation. Log in daily to watch for new listings, most of which will have video or drone shots to give you the lay of the land from afar. If it looks compelling, send your agent by to check it out. They can face time you from the house and walk you through if you like. You can then take it from there. Just also don’t try and wait too long or time the inventory market. If you see a great place, make a great offer!

That’s it. Enjoy August wherever you are. As always, let me know of any questions, thanks for reading and here’s to a great summer season for all of us.

TS

Text or call 415.377.5222 or ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder

  It’s July in Marin and summer is officially here. Everybody’s outside: hiking, biking, beaching, barbecuing–you name it. Many residents also go away this month, taking advantage of our close proximity to Tahoe, the wine country, southern California or Hawaii. Call it a Getaway Month for Marin and getaway they do, including some home buyers and sellers, at least in past years. But what about this summer?

If you’ve followed this blog or the Bay Area housing market over the last ten years or so, you’ll know that July and August tend to be slow months for home sales. Sure properties remain for sale and buyers are still out there, but for the most part, people tend to take a breather from the frenetic pace of spring sales, choosing to do any number of things, as long as it doesn’t involve buying or selling a house. Normally that’s how it goes, anyway.
Last year was an exception, with July being one of the busiest on record. We aren’t exactly sure why, but likely it was due to still-low mortgage rates, along with the expectations that home prices were only set to rise another 8% for the year, which they did. While this July could be a repeat of last, interest rates are up close to half a point (though still very affordable), yet inventory still remains at record lows. We’ll have to see what happens, but multiple offers still prevail on most well-located, well-priced properties. And as you know, for every five offers, only one is successful with at least four buyers out there to bid on the next one.
My advice? Buyers, keep at it, even if it means changing a vacation plan, providing you don’t lose any deposits. It’s like our December/January market. If some of your fellow buyers are busy doing other things, buckle down and enjoy possibly less competition on that new listing in your favorite area.
Sellers, stay with it. As I’ve always said, if you want to sell, sell. Clean up and stage before you go on the market, even lightly. Anything helps, but without a good visual presentation, you won’t have a good portrait of what to show your visually-hungry home buyers.
The rest of you? Enjoy July! It’s a great month with lots to do in the county, or nearby. As always, let me know of any questions, thanks for reading and here’s to a great summer season for all of us.
TS
Text or call 415.377.5222 or ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder