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June is here. Finally. The weather has finally warmed up, the kids are finally out of school and Marin home prices have finally–sorry. I have no idea and don’t know what they’ll do. What happens with prices is a complete unknown, even to those of us who’ve been doing it for well over thirty years. Given how it’s gone for April and May, we could very well see more of the same frenetic home sales with anxious buyers snapping up what little inventory we have. But there’s a lot of economic uncertainty out there to come, so again, who knows. All I do know is that our youngest is heading off to college in August without a care in the world. He’s aware of what I do for a living, but that’s about it. No real concern about supply and demand, mortgage rates or debt ceilings. Ah to be young again.   

Now if he were  to ask me about any of those market components, I would be thrilled, of course. But all I could tell him is where we are today, not really where we might be in the near or distant future. Of course I have to believe that people will always place a high importance on a nice safe place to live. So the chances of our home prices continuing up (albeit slowly) is highly likely. But only time will tell.

Meantime, our inventory remains at record lows, as it does in many of the zero (or low) growth areas. Many sellers are choosing to stay put and wait out that same uncertainty I mentioned earlier. Summer is a new sales month though, so again, we’ll see. 

That’s it for now. Until next time, enjoy June wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Uncategorized by Ted Strodder

June is here. Finally. The weather has finally warmed up, the kids are finally out of school and Marin home prices have finally–sorry. I have no idea and don’t know what they’ll do. What happens with prices is a complete unknown, even to those of us who’ve been doing it for well over thirty years. Given how it’s gone for April and May, we could very well see more of the same frenetic home sales with anxious buyers snapping up what little inventory we have. But there’s a lot of economic uncertainty out there to come, so again, who knows. All I do know is that our youngest is heading off to college in August without a care in the world. He’s aware of what I do for a living, but that’s about it. No real concern about supply and demand, mortgage rates or debt ceilings. Ah to be young again.   

Now if he were  to ask me about any of those market components, I would be thrilled, of course. But all I could tell him is where we are today, not really where we might be in the near or distant future. Of course I have to believe that people will always place a high importance on a nice safe place to live. So the chances of our home prices continuing up (albeit slowly) is highly likely. But only time will tell.

Meantime, our inventory remains at record lows, as it does in many of the zero (or low) growth areas. Many sellers are choosing to stay put and wait out that same uncertainty I mentioned earlier. Summer is a new sales month though, so again, we’ll see. 

That’s it for now. Until next time, enjoy June wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Uncategorized by Ted Strodder

Now that I’ve got that four word alliteration out of the way, it’s March in Marin and truly feels a bit mad out there. I’m not mad, don’t get me wrong. I’m a happy guy and always in a great mood, but boy it sometimes feels like I’ve been doing this job for 37 days, not 37 years. Things used to be fairly predictable around here: prices are going up slow, going up medium, going up fast, going down slow (that’s about it), staying flat. People are buying the high end, low end, condos, rentals are on fire, rentals are slow. Rates are up, rates are down, rates are flat–who knows anymore. Everything has changed and to all your questions, my answer is “I’ll let you know a month from now”.   

Compounding many of your questions are the unending media blasts on the falling (crashing even) home sale markets in other parts of the country. If you’ve followed this monthly blog of mine, you know that real estate if extremely regional, varying not just state by state, but county by county, city by city, town by town, neighborhood by neighborhood AND the newest addition: high demand properties. 

We all continue to watch sales and value plummet in high growth areas, or any place where prices shot up, seemingly overnight. Not so here or other no growth, slow price appreciation like Marin. We have seen some softening of prices, no question, up to 15% but many of those properties were either priced too high to begin with, or there of a lesser-demand description. That would mean, having characteristics that only a few buyers want. Those properties have always taken longer to sell, simply because in a supply/demand economy, there’s less demand. Not so for those in high demand. 

Case in point, my colleague Dubie listed a small 2 br / 2 ba home for sale in Cape Marin a few weeks ago. It’s a nice community, built in the late 80’s (often called “newer construction” here) in a great little neighborhood that’s close to everything. She smartly priced it at $1.7 mil, which felt a little low to me and to the clients I showed it to. We all thought it would sell for much higher than this. She sent out over 30 disclosure packets and received 9 offers, most with no contingencies I’m told. Just a guess, but it should close soon, likely in the $1.9-$2m range but we’ll see. It was the only house for sale in the neighborhood, illustrating the limited supply/strong demand. Let’s see how March goes. 

That’s it for now. Until next time, enjoy March and all of 2023 wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Uncategorized by Ted Strodder

Fall is here in Marin, though as I write this the focus is on our friends in South Lake Tahoe and surrounding areas. Years of drought has left all forests and parks vulnerable to high fire danger, though few of us imagined it would be to the scope of what’s going on there right now. Let’s all hope that our hard working fire crews prevail and things can start returning to normal over time, though who knows what that will look like, literally. Kathryn and I have been on Highway 50 many times and we watch in dismay as our familiar road into Tahoe is engulfed in flames, wondering what will be left by the time we make our next trip back. All of us send our thoughts to everyone involved up there as we hope for the best. But let’s move forward here. 

Speaking of normal, there’s a lot of press out now about both the economy and the real estate market starting to “normalize”. As job loss numbers shrink and more people get back to work, so may also go home sales. After record home sales in areas and neighborhoods outside our major cities over the last twenty months, there may be a slow down coming. Not a significant drop in prices or sales, but a more normal market with increased inventory and more time for buyers to decide on their purchase. More than the current average of six days, anyway, and without having to go over the asking price for an average of 106%. That’s where we’ve been, but hopefully where we’re going is less frenetic, yet still fruitful for both buyer and seller. It takes both groups to make a real estate market and what a market they’ve made since March of 2020. That too has been unimaginable. 

What started out back then as a “certain drop off (if not a plummet)” in home buying, actually went in the exact opposite direction. That would be up. Dramatically. What’s more remarkable is that it went pretty much in the exact opposite direction of the economy, which started to go down. I just attended a webinar by Jordan Levine, a noted California Real Estate Economist and it was fascinating. He had clear charts and graphs, showing the economy going down, while home sales and prices rose over the last year +. But as more people went back to work and the economy improved, the upward trajectory of home sales and prices started to soften with more inventory, fewer bidding wars and less of the over-asking price spikes. Read those words carefully, mind you. There’s nothing dramatic going on here right now with the economy or housing, only a slight shift in trends for both. Where we go from here is anybody’s guess, but I for one would like to see a more balanced (read: normal) housing market going forward, one that is neutral, favoring neither buyer nor seller. We’ll see.   

Meanwhile, you’ve all likely seen the published numbers or stayed in touch with an agent in your neighborhood, but virtually all home types and price ranges are up nationwide. They certainly are countywide here though not nearly the 20%-25% we’ve read about in some areas. Closer to 15%. Marin tends to have some of the higher prices in the nation with a median home price now at $1.8 mil and an average close to $2 mil, far from the approx $350k we see on average in most of the country, so that limits those who can afford the quality of life that many tend to strive for. Who knows where we go from there though. The times they may be a changing, yes, but people gotta live somewhere as they say and with interest rates these cheap, why not trade up, down or sideways.   

For now, that pretty much does it. Enjoy September and the rest of this year wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Uncategorized by Ted Strodder

It’s 2021, thankfully. We’re all ready to move on. Let’s just put yesterday behind us and look to an optimistic, brighter tomorrow. I for one think that Americans will prove to be more resilient than ever, learning and growing individually and as a whole. Strength and resolve will be the new culture this year, just watch, along with the universal marketing slogan “All new and improved for 2021.” What may not change this year is the housing market. If anything, we expect to see a continued housing boom if all predictions are correct, fueled by three important factors, among others. 

Factor #1: Beginning last April, home buyers began to flee cities across the U.S. with San Francisco being no exception, if not the banner ad photo for people leaving the crowded space of a city for the wide-open space of a nearby county (read: Marin). We saw this in many other cities in the Bay Area–and statewide–but perhaps nowhere more specific than right here, given the fresh air of our county is only twenty minutes from most of SF. Granted, many single family home neighborhoodsof San Francisco saw an enormous influx of new buyers, with multiple offers of 10-15 on each new well-priced, well-located listing. Most of these buyers were apartment or condo dwellers, looking to get away from lobbies, elevators and narrow hallways, aiming for healthier climes of some space between them and their neighbors. This describes most of Marin already, along with parts north, so it was a natural to see these renters become buyers, especially with mortgage rates hovering at or below 3%. Remember after your interest deduction write off on your taxes, these rates are effectively 2%. And with rents already high, why not become a homeowner? 

Factor #2: The new WFH (work from home) economy for employers and employees. Figures were just released today that indicate companies are saving an average of $10,000 per employee for those who work from home. Multiply this by thousands of people and the numbers are really big. The employees themselves are also saving an average of $5,000 by not having to commute (or wear long pants), but neither of these speaks to the increase in productivity for both sides. We’ve all read that tech giants like Apple, Google, Salesforce and Facebook have given their employees late into this year or next to return to work. But the question is, will it ever be the same with hundreds of thousands of commuters packing our roadways each day. Or will WFH be the new norm, further increasing the demand for larger home areas to work within? 

Factor #3: The passing of Proposition 19. As you may have read, home sellers can now trade down and take their property tax basis with them, throughout the entire state (as opposed to just 9 counties previously). If they’re over 55, have a disability or lost their home in a natural disaster, they can also do this 3 times. Sellers can also trade up in value and take their basis with them, but have to pay an adjusted value that still makes it economically viable. This could result in a giant musical chairs of home and tax base swapping statewide, we just don’t know. But at least sellers now have more options if they want to remain in California.     

That’s it for now. Enjoy January and all of 2021 wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Uncategorized by Ted Strodder

November is here in Marin and what a fall it’s been so far. All housing records were shattered here over the last few months with sales volume and prices hitting record territories, albeit in an organized, methodical fashion. No panic buying (or selling) but more of a momentum push of buyers seeking to leave where they are and move to or within Marin County, purchasing all variety of properties for any number of reasons. Mostly though, we heard time and again a desire for a better quality of life as the home has become a workplace and could stay that way for many years to come, if not indefinitely.

Companies large and small have realized that their workforce works better, faster, smarter and cheaper from home. Gone are the hours and expense wasted in the car, stressing in traffic, dealing with delays and trying to park. For those lucky enough to work from home it’s now out of bed with more rest than ever before, at it on the computer being more productive, happier and healthier than ever before. This new norm may just become the norm, but it’s too soon to tell. Right now, we’re all just reading about where we’ve been and where we are while working with and through the Pandemic. Where we go remains to be seen, but if the last six months are any indicator, let’s hope all goes smoothly for parents and school kids alike. Our ability to adapt as people hasn’t been tested to this extent for some time, if ever, and I for one have great faith we’ll pull through this better and stronger than ever before. 

Meanwhile, our “New Market” continues with buyers still leaving the confines of nearby cities to find a new place to shelter. Marin, Sonoma and Napa are all seeing strong home sales though that isn’t unusual. But even Tahoe properties are selling like crazy, helped in part by these crazy interest rates. Of the twenty-odd properties I’ve sold in the last year, most of my buying clients have mentioned in passing that they’re compromising on their wish list, if only to not miss a fixed rate at 2.875%. The savings over time are dramatic and not worth missing for any reason. 

Let me know of any questions on that. I’m here to help. Meantime, enjoy November wherever you are and please stay safe. As always, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Uncategorized by Ted Strodder

It’s a bright new year for all of us, weather-wise at least. Marin residents saw a lot more sun than rain here in the past month, with dry days providing lots of quality time outdoors for crisp winter walks or hikes. Kathryn and I did our first ever jaunt to the summit of nearby Mount Diablo (3,849 ft) that provided for some spectacular views well over 100 miles. Tahoe snow was thin over the holiday weeks, but forecasts call for the normal weather pattern to return this month, stocking up both snow pack and local reservoirs.

But enough about the weather. Let’s get right to what homeowners are really talking about: Me. Sorry, I mean the new tax changes capping mortgage interest and property tax deductions. They’re real and they’re here, but what does that mean for homeowners, home buyers or home sellers?

The short answer is, nobody knows. We have no history here to guide us, but it’s safe to say there will be some type of impact. It’s just impossible to say how much until we’re a few months passed it. But if the Feds raise interest rates “a few more times this year” (as we’re reading), the new tax implications for real estate could further contribute to a market slow down. This wouldn’t necessarily be unexpected, or a bad thing, given we’ve seen seven straight years of slow and solid property appreciation in Marin. So we may have been due for a slight pullback anyway, which isn’t to be misconstrued as a decline in values. Think fewer multiple offers and less “wow” on what the well-located, well-priced homes sell for.

For the record, our local industry is still forecasting low single digit appreciation, at least in the key areas like Marin, the Peninsula and some areas of SF. If demand remains high and the supply stays fixed, you don’t have to hold an Economics Degree to understand that the price of the product will increase. It just may not increase as much as it has in the past as the affordability factor(s) have now changed. Not that anybody cares what I think, but I for one remain very optimistic on the safe harbor investment of Marin real estate. They aren’t making anymore of it, for one, and people will continue to stream into our state, looking for a better quality of life. Plus, with extreme highs and lows of weather being the new norm across the country, some folks may get fed up with their forever changed climate and seek the mild temperatures we offer here. (See first paragraph above for more clarity). But as always, we’ll see what happens and I will report back month by month.

Any real-time questions though, let me know what I can do to help. Thanks for reading and here’s to a great 2018 for all of us.

TS

Text or call 415.377.5222 or ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Uncategorized by Ted Strodder

Spring is here in Marin County with summer right around the corner. The wild flowers are popping up all over, thanks to the wettest winter on record for most of Northern California. The landscaping is alive and it’s beautiful.

So too are For Sale signs springing up, as smart sellers take advantage of a strong seller’s market and smart buyers lock in a low mortgage rate now, even if they feel they’re paying a price premium. Time heals this wound quickly in Marin as home prices just slowly march forward. Given the early track record here, we’re all hearing it will be another increase in the average home price by roughly 8%. Not a high flying IPO return, but safe, secure and as Mark Cuban says, you can’t live in a stock or mutual fund. Or as we sometimes call it, your “enjoyment of use” far exceeds the price you have to pay to live in this great county.

For now, enjoy May, wherever you are. The sun is out in most parts of the country and certainly here. As I write this, we’re looking at 80 degree days all week and as you hear around town, it feels all that much better after so much rain.

As always, let me know of any questions, thanks for reading and here’s to a great spring season for all of us.

TS

Text or call 415.377.5222 or ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Uncategorized by Ted Strodder

March is here in Marin, following the wettest February on record, for us and for the state. Record rains filled reservoirs to capacity (or beyond) all over northern California, signalling an end to the drought and much relief to central valley farmers. Things should start drying out this month and next, but what about the housing market. Will the drought of new inventory also end? Possibly, given all we know. Here’s more on that, but let’s back up a couple months.

December and January are snail-slow for Marin County real estate. The weather, the holidays, vacations, more weather, who really knows why. But typically, things start to crank up in mid February and by March 1st, the selling season is in full swing. Not so this year. The relentless rains pounded the county and most home sellers into submission, leaving our morning computer screens nearly empty with new, Active inventory addresses. Properties still went into escrow, showing as Contingent, Pending or ultimately Sold, further decreasing what few listings were available. Increasing demand, limited, fixed supply: it’s all math and we don’t see any change with that as more people pour into the state.

Smart sellers who keep in step with our slow appreciation and price right are usually rewarded with at least one strong offer. But over-pricing is still rampant and can often result in a final sale price below what most of us saw as true market value.

Buyers stepping in (or back in after the winter break), you will see more properties hit the market from now, straight thru June. From there, it could be the usual July 5th summer break, which also lasts approximately two months. So by April / May, hopefully you’ll find something that is a 6 out of 10 for you. If it is, take a hard look at it. If it’s 7, 8, or even a 9 out of 10, make a strong offer. (There is no 10 out of 10, regardless of price range.) Just don’t worry. Time heals all offer-shock wounds in Marin. Give it a few months, you’ll never regret it.

For now, enjoy March, wherever you are. As always, let me know of any questions, thanks for reading and here’s to a great spring season for all of us.

TS

Text or call 415.377.5222 or <a href=mailto:ted@gomarin.com>ted@gomarin.com</a>

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog, Uncategorized by Ted Strodder

March is here in Marin, following the wettest February on record, for us and for the state. Record rains filled reservoirs to capacity (or beyond) all over northern California, signalling an end to the drought and much relief to central valley farmers. Things should start drying out this month and next, but what about the housing market. Will the drought of new inventory also end? Possibly, given all we know. Here’s more on that, but let’s back up a couple months.

December and January are snail-slow for Marin County real estate. The weather, the holidays, vacations, more weather, who really knows why. But typically, things start to crank up in mid February and by March 1st, the selling season is in full swing. Not so this year. The relentless rains pounded the county and most home sellers into submission, leaving our morning computer screens nearly empty with new, Active inventory addresses. Properties still went into escrow, showing as Contingent, Pending or ultimately Sold, further decreasing what few listings were available. Increasing demand, limited, fixed supply: it’s all math and we don’t see any change with that as more people pour into the state.

Smart sellers who keep in step with our slow appreciation and price right are usually rewarded with at least one strong offer. But over-pricing is still rampant and can often result in a final sale price below what most of us saw as true market value.

Buyers stepping in (or back in after the winter break), you will see more properties hit the market from now, straight thru June. From there, it could be the usual July 5th summer break, which also lasts approximately two months. So by April / May, hopefully you’ll find something that is a 6 out of 10 for you. If it is, take a hard look at it. If it’s 7, 8, or even a 9 out of 10, make a strong offer. (There is no 10 out of 10, regardless of price range.) Just don’t worry. Time heals all offer-shock wounds in Marin. Give it a few months, you’ll never regret it.

For now, enjoy March, wherever you are. As always, let me know of any questions, thanks for reading and here’s to a great spring season for all of us.

TS

Text or call 415.377.5222 or <a href=mailto:ted@gomarin.com>ted@gomarin.com</a>

Filed under: Uncategorized by Ted Strodder