July in Marin: Home Prices Up Slightly, But Decline Elsewhere

July is here in Marin. The sun shines daily as residents flourish in the numerous outdoor activities that make our region so popular. Hiking, biking, boating, swimming, surfing, paddle boarding, camping and a whole lot of other words that end in -ing abound, with a big one being “traveling”. July is a popular travel month for all Bay Area residents. As tourists flock here from all parts of the globe, local folks tend to go elsewhere, leaving the roads, trails, markets and malls somewhat empty. This makes it a great month to staycation also, taking in local spots you may not normally enjoy, like the beach, wine country, or even the cable cars of the City. Stay or go, everybody tends to celebrate July around here. But one thing they often tend not to do is buy houses.

While July is one of our busier travel and leisure months, it’s one of our slower home-buying months, historically anyway, as most people tend to be doing the other things we just mentioned. Not everyone though, as Marin is still very much a twelve month real estate market, but the sales volume always drops off from the frenetic months of March thru June. Buyers and sellers both tend to take a breather in July and into August, when the kids go back to school by month end. There’s another short pause thru Labor Day, then things usually pick up again right up until Thanksgiving. Then it’s typically slow holiday and winter market time up to February 1st, when the whole cycle starts over again. Usually, that is. Where we go from here is anybody’s guess as the annual uptick in home prices may have hit the “pause” button also. 

Several local media articles documented only a slight increase (or even slight drop) in the median home price over the last year, off from the frequent double digit appreciation we saw in 2012-2018. Marin was basically flat, up to $1,200,000, or just over 1%, with the exact same number of homes sold year over year (exactly 372) as were many other counties. But look at our stalwarts of tech-heavy Santa Clara and San Francisco counties. Both were down an average of 5%, with the number of homes sold in Santa Clara down 11%. That’s fairly sizable, considering that both areas (and Marin) saw an increase in population. Obviously, many people opted to rent, either by choice or necessity, but likely due to affordability, according to many experts. Rising home prices, combined with rising mortgage rates in 2018, plus limited federal and state tax deductions led to fewer buyers being able to afford our home prices. Read the Marin IJ article here, just know this only addresses the median home price, not the average, which is approx $350k higher at $1,550,000, or the luxury ranges, which saw good activity in the last few months. There have been 22 sales in the $5 mil-$10 mil range this year alone, with 2 others in the $10 mil-$13 mil range. If you’re interested, the high sale was James Hetfield’s place (think: Metallica) at 104 Laurel Grove in Ross for $12.4 mil. 

Where we go from here is anybody’s guess, though the on and offline chatter seems to favor a further slowing right through July. However, if you’re looking to buy or sell in the low price range of any of our twelve towns, the market will remain active, so don’t wait. Sellers, get your place move-in ready and hit the ground running anytime after July 8th. Just be smart and stay with market-value pricing, if not just a hair below to attract multiple buyers. Pretend you’re a fisherman, casting a line out there, into the depths, with a piece of bait on your hook. Do you want a small piece to hook a small fish, or a big one with a big whopping offer? If it’s the latter, price it right and they will bite!

Buyers, you could be in the driver’s seat this month and into next, but be smart and manage that expectation well. Don’t underbid if the property meets most of your requirements. There’s usually very little to choose from in any price range here, so don’t miss out on 10-20 years of memories by trying to be the Super Shopper and losing out to a more realistic buyer. It happens far too frequently, believe me, and kicking yourself on “the one that got away” is no fun.   

That’s it for now. Enjoy July wherever you are and stay in touch with any questions. I’m here to help. 

Ted

c 415.377.5222

ted@gomarin.com 

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder