No June Swoon for Marin & Sonoma Housing Market: Buyers Continue to Snap Up Today’s Prices

Summer is here in the North Bay: the kids get out of school by mid June and we should start to see warmer weather after an unusually cool May. Not that the housing market is showing any signs of cooling, mind you. It’s as warm as ever, with our slow price appreciation likely continuing well into the summer. Unless a whole bunch of people suddenly decide Marin isn’t the place for them, inventory will remain limited, as has been the case for the last six or seven years. It’s not so much a temporary pattern anymore, as likely just the way it’s going to be.

Muir Beach in June

Beginning in 2007, the housing market turned both here and throughout the country. Unlike over-built and over-developed areas where land is plentiful, Marin was still basically a no-growth county back then, much as it is now. Prices softened in the national mortgage meltdown, but didn’t plummet. That was understandable. What WASN’T understandable was this: instead of our inventory rising, like in other places, our housing for sale actually started to drop. We went from roughly 1200 active homes and condo’s for sale back then, downwards, year over year, until where we are now. That would be 402 choices in the entire county as of today. Sure folks sold off their vacation homes and boats, but most of them kept their residence in Marin, continuing our distinction of being one of the lowest attrition rates in the country. Fewer people move out of here than most any other county in America.

So like other quality places to live, demand continues to outstrip supply by a long way and we don’t see that changing. The state population is set to double here over the next 20 years or so and it’s highly likely a good percentage of those transplants are going to want what we have: 75% open space, great schools and basically no crime, no smog and no heavy traffic.

One thing that may help the housing crunch in parts north is the new SMART train coming early next year. We’ve seen buyers move up to cheaper areas in Santa Rosa, looking forward to taking the train into Larkspur (ultimately) and jumping on the ferry into SF. It’s going to be fast, cheap and a green way to go, much like the ferry itself. But it should also allow buyers to get more for their money by moving to Petaluma or beyond, without worrying about a two hour drive in to work. More on that in the months to come.

Until then, enjoy June and all of 2015, wherever you are. Any questions or help I can provide, I’m here for you.
As always, feel free to text, email or just call me up. I’m usually around.

Ted

415.377.5222 c
ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder