March in Marin: Will Rains Continue to Dampen Buyer Enthusiasm or Do We Spring Forward Again?

A series of powerful storms brought more rain to Marin over the last two months, along with up to fifteen feet of new snow to the sierras. Okay, so our reservoirs are full and the snow pack will easily take us through next year, great. But all that water from the sky isn’t just a blessing. Many areas of the north bay saw rising creeks, flooding, and even power outages lasting several days (like on our own home in Greenbrae). When these things are going on, people tend to spend less time on planning vacations, home buying or selling, focusing instead on their immediate safety and well-being. If the data is any indicator, that’s exactly what happened last month as rains dampened home sales, starting January 1st and continuing right until the end of February. But you can’t always blame the weather.

Rising mortgage rates, stock market volatility and a 35 day partial government shut down all seemed to add up to a reluctance for winter buyers to brave the storms and go look at real estate, let alone buy it. Most of us busy agents were, well, not very busy: not just because there weren’t a lot of active buyers, but there also weren’t a lot of new active listings to go look at. The result was 5% fewer home sales and only a .5% increase over the same winter period last year. Make no mistake, these numbers should both change dramatically as we enter the home buying season this month, assuming we don’t get even more rain. As I sit here typing this on March 1st, however, I see a series of storms lined up that could do just that, but more on our seasonality in Marin and other parts of the Bay Area.

March thru June is typically our strong home buying/selling season here and in other desirable areas of San Francisco, the Peninsula, Silicon Valley and the East Bay. All neighborhoods see a general uptick over these four months, but certain areas (or even streets) see a dramatic jump in activity and home prices. This continues right up until July 5th, when things slow down and typically stay slow right until the next following March. That’s why many agents say we achieve our annual appreciation in these months, and spend the rest of the year trying to hang onto it. I agree, but will this year be any different?

It’s way too soon to tell, but ask me in a month. We never know where we are in our real estate market until we’re able to look back and see where we’ve been. Only then can we begin to guess where we may be going. But this year, I often hear that “It’s anybody’s guess” where we go in this market. We could stay in the winter doldrums right into the summer, or spring to life this month, as we have for the last eight years running. We don’t need to wait four months to know, but we do know month to month how it’s looking. For any questions on how that looks, let me know.

That’s it for now. Let me know of any questions, but enjoy March, wherever you are. Stay dry and stay safe, thanks for reading.

Ted

415.377.5222
ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder