October is Here in Marin: Will Upcoming Rate Hike Spur or Slow the Market?

October is here and fall is in the air: cool nights and mornings, warm sunny afternoons and Halloween being marketed already all over the county. The weather is early this year, perhaps a precursor to the El Nino rains they are predicting that may be on the way. It would be a welcome respite from the four years of drought in the state, though Marin reservoirs are still well-stocked for the season as you may recall from this blog over the summer.

Speaking of fall, a bit of chatter out there as to what will happen to home values here when mortgage rates ultimately rise late this year, or early next. A lot of us have been through this before and the likely scenario is this: either something will happen, or nothing will. I’m kidding, but also not far off. Some buyers will jump off the fence and lock in, figuring a 3.75% fixed rate is better than 4%. Others will just continue looking, knowing the payment difference isn’t that dramatic, but they will likely buy sooner with the knowledge that further rate hikes are on the horizon. Some buyers will just do nothing and continue to look, but we are hearing that none of them will be hoping for a drop back in rates in the near future. It’s a given that once rates go back up, they will stay up, though it’s unclear how much and for how long. Nobody is anticipating mortgages to go up a full 1% anytime soon. It will be slow, methodical and well-organized as in the past. At least according to the big brains out there.

Looking farther forward, watch for some sellers to start pulling their homes from the market in November and the same amount of buyers to retrench for the winter too. Both will pick up where they left off by March 1st of next year, which is when we are back to full swing here in Marin. Yes plenty of homes trade in December, but far less than in most other months of the year. Just know that nobody is expecting prices to fall. So if you’re a seller, great. But buyers, be nimble and be quick. If you see a property that has 6 out of 10 going for it, consider it strongly. If it has 7 or 8 positives, make a good offer, 9 out of 10, just buy the thing. There is no 10 out of 10, at least in my career of over 1,000 home sales here. People buy an “okay” house and make it their own version of a 10, much as they do in other areas of the country.

That’s it for now. Please enjoy October wherever you are. Any questions, let me know how I can help. I’m around all month.

TS

Text or call 415.377.5222 or ted@gomarin.com

Filed under: Marin Real Estate Blog by Ted Strodder