Back HomeSeptember in Marin
|
September: the kids are back in school and one of our nicest months for warm, fog-free weather. Stinson and Bolinas beaches often see the most visitors this month as locals and out of towners alike rent homes out there for long weekends or even a full week. But with our normal Indian Summer likely in place, this month and next are often talked about as a favorite time for many Marin residents.Speaking of normal, we’re all looking for the supply of homes for sale begin its return to a normal state, bringing with it a less frenetic resale market. Since 2007, when prices started to fall, so did the supply of properties for sale here. It surprised many of us, but people let go of their stocks or second homes, but not where they lived. We slowly went from an average of 1400 homes and condo’s for sale to only 700 today, and that current number is actually high. We’ve been as low as 500.
 While our inventory has basically been cut in half, the percentage of homes in escrow has steadily risen, yielding 40% – 50% of the market properties under contract, whereas it used to hover around 30%. We looked at this as an anomaly for the first few years, thinking it was just going to turn back the other way and more people were going to decide to sell, rather than hunker down. But hunker they did. Why? Well, we aren’t completely sure, but I can tell you that “quality of home life” had a lot to do with it. They didn’t (or don’t) need a condo up at Tahoe, which is far cheaper to rent anyway, and they didn’t (or don’t) have much faith in the volatility of the stock market, so they decided to stay in their houses and take permanent shelter. On top of that, another factor kicked in, starting in 2010: people started pouring back into California and the population began to rise again after a three year drop. And of the millions of people who moved here, where do you think a small percentage of them wanted to live? You guessed it, right here. And with Marin being basically a zero growth county, it doesn’t take an economist to figure out that your fixed supply of homes are going to increase in value. Sure enough, in 2011, it’s like somebody flipped a switch and the buyers started to buy again, with no end in sight. So given the dynamics in place, what’s a buyer to do? Well, probably “buy” I’d say. While you may think prices are high now after a three year run-up, we’re only now back to where they were in 2007 in half of the county. The northern half still has a bit to go, but not much. If you’re here for more than two years, go ahead and purchase. If not, go ahead and rent, but try to lock in two years. Rents are going up as fast as home prices, also now back to where they were at the high. Meantime, enjoy September wherever you are. Let me know of any questions. I’m here to help. TS Text or call 415.377.5222 |
© Copyright 2019 Ted Strodder. 